Study On The Effects Of International Grain Price Transmission With Nonlinearity And Asymmetry

Price transmission refers to the process of one market price affected by many factors in the operation of a change and interacts with the relevant price through certain pathways or channels. Along with the development of economic globalization and trade liberalization, the increasingly close ties between the national markets, A regional market price is determined not only by its own economic situation. The price fluctuations of the various countries and regions of the world have not only the performance of the respective characteristics of the fluctuations, but increasingly showing a mutual conduction interaction co-moving relationship. Grain has been the focus of concern of Governments as maintaining the necessities of human survival. Especially since2006. the international grain price act like a roller coaster fluctuations in rapid growth, had a serious impact on the entire world’s grain supply, especially for developing countries, In recent years, China’s grain prices also experiencing such fluctuations and have obvious synchronization fluctuations rose features with the international grain prices. Since2004,China began to implement a series of grain support policy such as direct grain subsidies and the minimum purchase price, Follow this, how is the international grain prices on China’s grain prices transmission effect? This is the main question to answer in this article, and in order to make policy recommendations for help our country resist the international grain price fluctuations.In this paper, under the perspective of China’s grain support policy, we look the domestic and international price of four grain of wheat、 maize、soybean and rice as the object of our study. First of all. we make the statistical analysis and measure fluctuation cycle for the domestic and international grain price, and analyze the stability and co-movement of the domestic and international grain price by the mathematical methods. The results are this. Domestic grain prices are more stable than the international price in general, the price of maize and what more stable than soybean and rice (whatever is domestic or international). The four types of grain varieties of domestic and international price fluctuation cycle is basically consistent, domestic and international prices of soybeans and corn cycle co-movement are stronger than wheat and rice.Secondly, on the basis of elaborated grain price transmission mechanism, and combined with the grain support policy perspective, we draw three propositions and test them, The three propositions as follow:1.International grain prices transmission channels can be divided as:trade channel、Futures channel、the combine of trade and Futures channel;2.Under the China’s grain support policy perspective, there is a non-linear characteristics on international grain prices on the transmission effect of China’s grain prices;3.Under the China’s grain support policy perspective, there is asymmetry characteristics on international grain prices on the transmission effect of China’s grain prices:Thirdly, under the background of non-linear as well as asymmetry, we analyze the transmission effect of international grain prices on grain prices in China and draw the following conclusions:1.there are two mechanisms forward transfer effect for international grain prices on domestic prices in China, and the size of the trade in grain varieties has directly affects the ability of Price transmission system correct the short-term deviate from long-term equilibrium;2.In the current period, in respect of varieties, the influence of international on domestic price of soybean and maize much more than wheat and rice, the lag of international grain prices are mainly short-term fluctuations in domestic grain prices;3.The rise of international grain price have greater influence on domestic grain price than the fall, and the transmission system of international and domestic grain prices have stronger ability to regulate prices rise than decline.Finally, on the basis of the previous text Analysis and empirical analysis, we put forward specific policy recommendations target to how to avoid the impact of international grain prices fluctuations at this stage and how to ensure the stability of China’s grain prices, the increase of farmers’ income and grain security in China.