Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Management Of Real Estate Enterprise

As the leading and bracing industry to drive the macro economy developing coordinated and promote urbanization, the real estate industry has experienced ups and downs after the financial crisis time, which is from "rapid development" to "big adjustments", and then to "aggravated differentiation ". Since2010our country has issued a series of real estate regulation policy to cool down the "overheated" real estate market. Real estate enterprises of high investment and high risk are facing strained capital-chain, part of the financial situation deteriorate sharply and the financial crisis is on the verge of breaking out. How to early warn the risk before the financial situation has deteriorated is a urgent problem that every real estate enterprise needs to be solved.The existing "national real estate industry comprehensive prosperity index" reflects the development trend of the whole real estate industry from the aspects of land, capital, exploitation amount and market demand, but it doesn’t carry on the further study of the financial microscopic angle. The prosperity of the real estate industry is closely related to the changes of macro-environment, changes of the industry environment combined with adjustments of the financial strategy influence each financial elements, which causing fluctuation of financial condition and then generating financial risk. The traditional method of enterprise financial early warning is one-sided and hysteretic, just staying in the stage of monitoring and forecasting the enterprise’s internal financial risk but not to explore the external environment risk factors. So this thesis analyses the formation mechanism of financial risk of real estate enterprise and designs financial early warning indexes from the three levels of external environment, industry characteristics and internal enterprise. The changes of macro environment show on the prospective and sensitivity for the financial risk early warning of the real estate enterprise, overcoming the limitations of the micro financial early warning.This thesis takes periodic fluctuation theory and Internal control and risk management theory as the foundation, first of all it identifies the exogenous factors and endogenous factors that lead to the formation of financial risk, combining with the characteristic of real estate industry and enterprises’ finance, then explores the transmission path of the financial risk according to the cyclical fluctuation of financial condition and the risk characterization. Secondly, it designs the leading indicators, coincident indicators and lagging indicators based on the financial and non-financial index system, then it measures the individual index by Efficacy Coefficient Method and Delphi Method, it composites the leading index, coincident index, lagging index and comprehensive early warning index by principle components analysis method in order to monitor and judge the financial risk situation and degree of the real estate enterprise. Thirdly it uses radar map to positioning risks, chooses the prevention and control path from the two levels of policy guidance and internal control in order to make the right management decision. Finally it selects the financial and non-financial data of FH Real Estate Inc from2008to2012as the research sample, drawing the graphs of leading index, coincident index, lagging index and comprehensive early warning index, displaying the financial prosperity state with signal lights so as to monitor the fluctuations of financial situation.The method of macro-economic early-warning is introduced into the micro-enterprise financial risk, in reference to the formation method of "national real estate industry comprehensive prosperity index", it has breakthrough in the aspects of early warning angle and early warning index. the trend of fluctuant cycle of the comprehensive early warning index will monitor the financial prosperity of the real estate enterprise. The conclusions show that, the financial situation of the real estate enterprise exists fluctuating cycle with the fluctuating of macro-environment, the designed index early-warning model has good predicting function.