Research On The Impact Of International Hot Money To China’s Securities Market In The Post-financial Crisis Period

The Subprime Mortgage Crisis of United States which exploded in2007has brought great influence. European sovereign debt problems of2011aggravated the complexity of the financial crisis, then the international financial market shocked. The international hot money issue causes our urgent study again. Under the upvaluation of RMB expected and Sino-US spreads situation forced our country under the pressure of the hot money shock. With the hot money large-scale alternate flowing brought great fluctuations to our country’s securities market. This paper aims to research how to prevent the hot money impact on China’s securities market in the post-financial crisis period.The thesis focused on the idea of "theory-status-mechanism-empirical-policy’ so as to expand thinking, and comparative analysis,literature research.normative and empirical combination method were widely carried. This paper first introduced the international hot money’s basic theories, thus extended to introduce the current Chinese flow situation of hot money in the post-financial crisis period. With that, analyze hot money how to affect the securities market by means of direct and indirect mechanism thoroughly, then concluded a more comprehensive positive effect as well as negative effect. Improve the liauidity, operation efficiency and promote the integration of financial market, the negative effect included stock fluctuation and increasing risk of securities market. In the next chapter using Granger causality test and VAR model to derive that:(1)the flow of hot money promote the stock index to rise or fall;(2)The stock return change cause hot money flowing. Finally five strategies and recommendations were put forward:strengthen supervision of channels, guide and manage hot money reasonably, strengthen securities market construction, establish risk warning mechanism, promote international financial cooperation.