| By means of the Guangdong "Three Old Reform" Policy, JT Group will change the industrial land in Zhujiang New Town Guangzhou to the commercial land and will develop this plot into the office building in the near future. Since the real estate development involves larger investment and long construction cycle together with other influence factors, it exists high risk in the development and management process. Meanwhile, in recent years the government has promulgated a series of real estate macroeconomic regulation and control policy and actively applied the market and administrative measurements to control the real estate market. In addition, the government has recently remained adamantly that restrictions on the housing market cannot be lifted. Hence it is very necessary to analyze and demonstrate the market analysis, estimate analysis and financial analysis of "Three Old Projects" so as to cut down the investment risk and provide valuable proposals for the investment project.This essay, on the basis of project planning and designing, will firstly analyze the national macroeconomic environment and Guangzhou office building market to further demonstrate that in the recent few years, in order to achieve steady economic growth, from the central to the local government will remain adamantly restriction on real estate market under the frame of limit credit policy. The office building market in Zhujiang New Town Guangzhou will be on the uptrend channel with the slight trimming and relaxation on real estate policy or the acceleration release of the demand. From the aspect of maintenance and appreciation of state-owned assets, sustainable benefit and long-term development, the essay sets the project management to an overall rental plan. At the same time through the comparison and analysis of the supply and demand of the overall market and the competitive projects, the essay proposes the average rent for180yuan/m2per month of the project.The essay lays the emphasis on the project investment estimation, financing raising and operating revenue forecast, financial analysis etc. According to the calculation, the project’s total investment amount is1.97435billion yuan, including construction investment amount of1.88799billion yuan with the loan interest of86.36million yuan during construction period.2.50963billion yuan is required for the first21years of development period of the Project, consisting of the self-raised capital of751.68million yuan, bank loans of1.235billion yuan and rental reinvestment of522.95million yuan respectively. The net operating income of the Project in50years of development period of reaches about13.94957billion yuan. The financing and rental income of the Project can satisfy the requirements of the project investment, debt service in operation period, operational cost, enterprise income tax and rental tax. The origin of capital and application completely meet the project investment targets. Both the all investment of the overall rent plan and the internal rate of return (IRR) of self-raised capital are far higher than the selected benchmark rate (8%). It shows the good profitability of the whole project investment and the self-raised capital. Since the after-tax financial net present value (NPV) are greater than zero, the essay thinks that the project is financially acceptable and the project operation income can guarantee both the operation cost and repay of principal and interest of the bank loan. It will also accounts for the smaller investment risk of the Project via the uncertainty analysis and risk analysis. Finally in order to control and avoid potential risks, safeguard the duly delivered for use of the project, improve higher management level, create more profits, the essay formulates the related supporting measurements in financial management, project management and market management. |