The Research On The Counter-Cyclical Of Bank’s Capital Regulatory In China

In the post-crisis era, in order to deal with aftermath of the financial tsunami and minimizing the loss of economic fluctuation, the governments and enterprises have put forward various policy and management methods, which are based on the conventional adjustment.And at the same time, a counter-cyclical regulatory has attracted more and more attention. A counter-cyclical regulatory is an important factor when the government want to improve the efficiency of management. And in the wake of the financial crisis, the risk caused by capital regulation periodicity becomes a hot topic of economic theoretical cycle. In the period of economic expansion, the risk is accumulated,but during the period of economic recession it’s released, thereby the existence of the financial system aggravate the turmoil of financial system and the fluctuation of macroeconomicBasel III is a remarkable achievement of the reform of the international banking supervision system after the global financial crisis. The implementation and promotion of such an agreement will exert a profound impact on international financial markets and even the world economy. Under the circumstances of financial globalization, it is also bound to have a significant impact on China’s banking sector. Building a counter-cyclical regulatory capital framework for China’s banking industry is a requisition for the industry to actively respond to the new international financial environment. Therefore, in the post-crisis era, how to strengthen a counter-cyclical capital regulatory, effective control and manage the risk of commercial banks, in a recession how to release the risk stably which is accumulated in the period of economic, make macro-economy more stable, are urgent and important for the reform of commercial banks.According to the idea which is combined by economics theory in economics and Econometrics, the paper uses normative analysis, positive analysis, logical analysis and history analysis method. Ascertaining the formation mechanism of commercial bank capital pro-cyclical regulation, this paper intends to select an appropriate ecometric model to conduct an empirical test on the current state of China’s commercial bank capital pro-cyclical regulation. After that, the paper summerizes the experience of other countries in the regulation of counter-cyclical capital, constructs a counter-cyclical capital regulatory framework based on the general principle of Basel III as well as the actual state of China’s banking industry, and builds a counter-cyclical capital model to predict the volume of counter-cyclical capital of China’s commercial banks in the next five years. In the last part of the paper, the auther probes into the corresponded adjustment and reform of China’s banking industry in the purpose of ensure the smooth running of the counter-cyclical capital regulatory framework...