Study On The Macro-prudential Supervision Based On The Real Estate Loans' Counter-cyclical Mitigation Multiplier

The global financial crisis in 2007 exposed that the improper financial supervision led to the amplification of financial risks.The Basel Committee issued papers "A Global Regulatory Framework for More Resilient Banks and Banking Systems.”and "International Framework for Liquidity Risk Measurement Standards and Monitoring," in 2010,collectively known as the Basel agreement ?.Basel ?emphasized to prevent systemic risk for the purpose of macro-prudential regulation,and how to restrain the cyclical characteristics of the time dimension is the key of macro-prudential regulation.This paper analyzes the real estate loans' pro-cyclical characteristics and its risk,and elaborate the realistic needs of adjusting counter-cyclically to real estate loans.In recent years,China's real estate market operation has become the focus,the real estate market volatility may lead to systemic financial risks caused by the attention of people from all walks of life.How to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market by means of real estate finance regulation is the main problem of this paper.Taking into account the bank real estate loans is the main form of China's real estate finance,this paper focuses on the analysis of the bank's real estate loans related issues.Through historical data found that it exists pro-cyclical characteristics between real estate loans and real estate market operation,and China's current real estate financial regulatory measures will promote the pro-cyclical,the fluctuations in the real estate market is extremely easy to affect financial stability.This paper draw lessons from counter-cyclical macro-prudential supervision enlightenment after the sub-prime mortgage crisis,and infiltrate the concept of reverse cycle into the supervision of real estate loans,and dynamically adjust the real estate loans by introducing a counter-cyclical mitigation multiplier.This paper construct a counter-cyclical mitigation multiplier to mitigate the real estate loans' pro-cyclical characteristics and empirical analyze its effect.The role of counter-cyclical mitigation multiplier is to make real estate loans as long as possible to return to the long-term trend,rather than positive feedback in the real estate market cycle changes.Based on the empirical analysis of the counter-cyclical mitigation multiplier,it is concluded that counter-cycle regulation after introducing the counter-cyclical mitigation multiplier can effectively slow down the pro-cyclical characteristics between the real estate loan and the real estate price.Through the VAR measurement method and impulse response analysis,it is concluded that the counter-cycle regulation method can effectively reduce NPLR and prevent systemic risk.This paper compares the effect of counter-cyclical adjustment methods on real estate development loans and loans for the purchase of real estate,in comparison,counter-cyclical loans to purchase a greater role in regulating.According to the empirical analysis of the counter-cyclical mitigation multiplier and the characteristics of macro-prudential supervision framework under Basel ?,focusing on the prevention of systemic financial risk and promote the healthy and stable operation of the real estate market,this paper puts forward some relevant suggestions to improve China's real estate finance counter-cyclical supervision.