Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility On Industrial Structure Adjustment

The central economic work conference emphasizes on "restructuring and reform" fromthe six deployment task. Although double surplus in both current and capital accounts ofinternational payment, China’s manufacture is still in the middle and lower chain of globalindustrial, relatively backward; as export situation grim with global financial crisis last fora long time, restructure must be an urgent issue changing China’s economic reliance onexports fundamentally. RMB appreciation pressure lead to an unprecedented discussion onwhether it is necessary for RMB appreciation and expand the exchange rate elasticity,whether financial reform on marketization and liberalization of exchange rate can promoterestructure upgrade positive or negative.To study Chinese industrial restructure status and influence on different industry ofexchange rate movements, this article choose annual data from1994to2011as sample, fordiscussion the problem from theory and practice Angle. This paper utilizes mathematical analysisfor firms’ behavior decision in terms pursuit of profit maximization while exchange rate volatility.Also theoretical analysis on five drive paths from price, international trade, capital flows, X effect,policy and signal expected effect to discussed exchange rate changes influence to the nationaleconomy. Empirical calculation for various refining industry contribution rate of output valueand growth rate in national economy, DEA model for computing the total factor productivity ofeach industry, indicates that China’s refining industry structure adjustment and upgrade ofindustrial structure. the influence of different industries on the reaction direction and degree ofappreciation has the difference; different industry under the background of the appreciation of theRMB should adopt different measures. At last make Suggestions on exchange rate system reform,government macro policy and industrial decisions policy, etc.