A Study On The Influence And Its Countermeasures Of RMB Exchange Rate Changes On Jiangxi Province's Industrial Restructuring

Since the Reform and Opening,the economics of our nation has experienced the rapid development,and our nation's position in the international stage is improving day by day.In this situation,China's participation in globalization and international division of labor has been strengthened.As an important price signal,the exchange rate will affect the cost of a country's international division of labor,changing the price of production factors,reconfiguring a country's resources,thus affecting the adjustment of industrial structure.And accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure and promoting the upgrading of industrial structure is an urgent need for China to transform its economic growth mode and achieve sound and rapid economic development.Since the reform of RMB exchange rate in 2005,the level of RMB exchange rate has started to appreciate greatly,which has had an important impact on China's economy,price level and industrial structure.Therefore,under the background of RMB appreciation,it is necessary to study the effect of RMB exchange rate changes on industrial structure adjustment.Compared with our nation's coastal cities,Jiangxi province has low labor cost and low-cost production factors.Therefore,it has a price advantage in the international market.However,with the rising cost of labor,Jiangxi province's price advantage has gradually disappeared,and the foreign demand has collapsed,making the industrial structure of jiangxi province badly needed to be transformed.In recent years,the government of Jiangxi province has introduced a series of policy measures to actively adjust the industrial structure,such as vigorously promoting the rise of industry and formulating the development plan of ten strategic emerging industries of Jiangxi province.Therefore,it is of practical significance to take Jiangxi province as the research object to study the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the industrial restructuring and put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.This paper theoretically studies the paths of the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on industrial restructuring,and describes the development trend of import and export trade,FDI and industrial structure of jiangxi province,at the same time,empirically analysing the paths of influence of exchange rate fluctuation on industrial restructuring,the direct influence of exchange rate fluctuation on industrial restructuring,and the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on the internal structure of the tertiary industry by using the research methods of unit root test,co-integration test,VAR model,VECM model,Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition test.The research results show some conclusion.Firstly,the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will affect the import and export trade and FDI in Jiangxi province,and it has a positive influence on import trade and export trade and a negative impact on FDI.Secondly,import and export trade and FDI will influence the industrial structure of Jiangxi province.Futher,the import and export trade will promote the development of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry,and inhibit the development of primary industry,while the FDI can promote the development of primary industry and secondary industry,and inhibit the development of the tertiary industry.Thirdly,the rise of the RMB exchange rate will greatly restrain the development of the primary industry,promote the development of the secondary industry and inhibit the development of the tertiary industry,but the degree of inhibition to the tertiary industry is weak.Meanwhile,through analyzing the internal structure of the tertiary industry of Jiangxi province,found ing that the the rising of exchange rate will rise greatly inhibit the development of transportation industry,warehousing industry and postal industry which occupy a large proportion in the tertiary industry,and this maybe the cause of the rising of the exchange rate restrains the development of the tertiary industry.According to the above empirical results,combining the actual situation of Jiangxi province,this paper puts forward some targeted countermeasures and suggestions from the perspectives of import and export trade,FDI and the internal structure of the tertiary industry.