The Construction And Improvement Of Our Monetary Policy Expectations Management System

With the eruption of the financial crisis in2008, it spread and subsided in the next four years. Under the influence of the financial crisis, the economic situation of China has had tremendous changes. First of all, there is a slowdown in economic growth.Secondly, pressures that comes from inflation increases a lot.Lastly, Industrial structure adjustment problems should be solved in time. In this background, the primary goal of monetary policy turns to be steadying the economic growth and adjusting the Industrial structure, as well as controlling the inflation. At the same time, Expectations management, specifically inflation expectation management, is expected to become the consensus of the government. In view of expectation management, this article tries to build a system of monetary policy expectation management, with the support of inflation expectation management and economic growth expectation management.With the development of the expectations theory, many scholars at home and abroad have successively launched the research on the expectations theory, as well as inflation expectations theory.The expectations theory also gone from a non-rational expectations into the development process of rational expectations. It is important that foreign research results as well as other countries in anticipation of the work and management experience in monetary policy is expected to build on our management system. In addition, our scholars’research on expectations theory is a combination of actual economic data, which is more practical significance on China’s monetary policy expectation management.After2008financial crisis, China’s inflation situation intensified. Situation and the causes of inflation were analyzed, which is beneficial for the further research work on management of inflation expectations. Western developed countries’primary means of managing inflation expectations and methods of management systems can be transplanted to China. The inflation expectation managing of western countries can be divided into the measurement of inflation expectation and the control and guidance of inflation expectation, which mainly includes the uses of questionnaire survey analysis, index tools to measure inflation, nominal yield spreads securities to measure the inflation expectations and econometric model to estimate inflation expectations. Although the history of management of inflation expectation in China is not very long, after more than ten years of exploration and study, now China has its own central bank, institutional forecasters and individual forecasters to forecast inflation. Combines China’s inflation expectation management status with the westerns management experience, we put forward some suggestions to build Chinese inflation expectation management system, including establishing special inflation monitoring system, improving the credibility and the current inflation situation.We now have some institutions and departments in China do the related work of macroeconomic forecast. These institutions and departments are mainly the people’s bank of China, the national bureau of statistics, the state council development research center, institute of economics, brokerage, etc., and the forecast results contain unquantifiable forecast reports and quantitative index, such as enterprise boom index, entrepreneurs confidence index, the index of consumer confidence, and forecast growth rate of GDP, etc. And then we try to establish prediction model to analysis the correlation between enterprise boom index and GDP and forecast GDP through climate index. Aimed to China’s economic growth expectation management situation, we need to combine inflation expectations management system make recommendations accordingly.Nowadays, we not only need to pay attention to management of inflation expectations, but also economic growth expectations management should also be taken seriously. The road of expectation management is still in its infancy, on one hand, we need to learn the successful experiences of other countries, on the other hand we need points out the problems in the expected management in our country at present from our own perspective, and adjust methods. I also have much future hope of our country’s monetary policy expectation management, including perfecting expected measuring and testing method, transplantation of inflation targeting regime in our country, and building communication platform as well.