The Research On The Public Expectations And The Management Of Our Monetary Policy Expectations

Premier wen jiabao put forward to strengthen the management of inflation expectations in2009, This is the first time the chinese government offered to the concept of expectations management publicly, This paper carries on the corresponding reasearch and I hope to provide some ideas and solutions. This paper can be divided into five parts.The first chapter is introduction,it proposed the concept of expectations management and determined the content of this article which includes the formation mechanism of the public expectations and the research on the expectations management firstly,The article reviewed the expectations theory at home and abroad in the next, Finally the research ideas and research methods and innovation have been offered.The second chapter put forward the general concept of expectation fristly; Secondly it summed up three classification methods of expectation;Third,Tt depicts the formation mechanism of expectation;Fourth,It pointed out some points of expectation determinants;Fifth, the article research into the transmission channel effects of expectations according to the monetary policy transmission channel; In last,the article analyzed the features of our country’s public expectations such as irrational state, incomplete information, conformitily etc. At last it concluded that several points on the mangement of expectations by the study of formation mechanism under incomplete information and full information, such as the central bank’s reputation, the timeliness of the information and policy transparency,this conclusion can be expanded in the next chapter;This chapter is write on the basic level of analysis to lay the solid foundation for the empirical analysis and countermeasures study in the next.Chapter III first described the measurement of public expectations and experts expectations,This article focuses point on public expectations management, the measurement of public expectations includes questionnaire and inflation-indexed tool.The former refers to use the result of Chinese household savings survey to form a judgment of the public expectation acrorrding to the future price expectation index,the change rate of the future price expectation index and the change rate of the actual inflation rate index in the nearest years were compared by the central bank;The latter which is the foreign monetary authorities use for the practice of public expectations, the article explains the issue of inflation-indexed bonds,and the central bank can get the estimates of public inflation expectations value based on the comparison of inflation-indexed bonds interest rates and interest rates of the non-indexed bonds; Second,the article made a analysis on the effectiveness of monetary policy under the action of expectations, it descripted the influence of expectations on a variety of economic variables in detail, such as select the data of urban fixed asset investment to show the impact of expectations on investment, select the data of consumption expectations index to show the impact of expectations on consumption, and selected the data of RMB and foreign currency deposits to illustrate the impact of expectations on the savings, the impact of expectations on inflation is illustrated by the approximated expected inflation rate while using the regression method, the Ranger causal analysis and Chow test, and this influence in times of high inflation is higher than the influence in low inflation period; At last it introduced the reasons of the defection of our expectations management and pointed out the hazard of misconduct on the expectations management, the reasons of the defection of our expectations management include the target preferences of China’s monetary policy, policy opaque, as well as information channels has not been effectively controlled in China,the hazard of mismanagement can be listed as follows,such as self-fulfilling inflation expectations、house prices rising expectation as well as the harm of the expectations of appreciation in RMB.The fourth chapter introduced the advanced experience of the foreign countries on the expectations management, such as Inflation Targeting, Taylor rules, and the strengthening of the communication mechanism, it pointed out that China should be have different options in short and long term under the management framework,in short term we can establish an inflation targeting regime、strengthen policy transparency and maintain the fine-tuning mechanism of monetary policy,in long term the central bank and government need to change the mode of economic development and cultivate a perfect market, as well as maintain the continuity stability and predictability of monetary policy, it is very improtant to pay attention to improve the implementation of inflation targeting for central bank in long-term as well.In the chapter V of this article, I have conclusions and prospects.The paper obtained appropriate analysis of the expected impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy and the expected importance of management, the central bank’s policy options in short-term and long-term had be pointed out as well, but it still need to improve the expectation test methods and the related test methods of expectation with the economic variables.