Research On Relationship Between World Trade And World Shipping Based On Co-integration Theory

World trade and world shipping influence each other and they are closely allied. World shipping is dependent on the world trade.The development of world trade is the foundation of the world shipping boom. Mean while, world shipping also become important factors in influencing and restricting the further development of world trade. The development of world shipping greatly improve the world trade environment, providing a variety of convenient conditions for the development of world trade. If the development of world shipping can’t keep up with the pace of world trade development,it will greatly hinder the further development of world trade.Based on cointegration theory and methods,this dissertation analyses the relationship between world trade and world shipping. The dissertation firstly describes the existed research about the application of cointegration theory in the empirical rasearch,and about the relationship between world trade and world shipping.Then the cointegration,world trade and world shipping are defined.On this base,the cointegration model and test technology between world trade and world shipping are founded including VAR model,ADF test,Johansen cointegration test,VECM model and Granger causality test, Impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis.Based on the foregoing theoretic research and by dint of Eviews software,the empirical analysis in the relationship between world trade and world shipping is made.By the empirical test,the cointegration relationship between world trade and world shipping is verified;The long-run equilibrium and the VECM model between them is described and the model fitting test is put up.In order to in-depth analysis the influence of variables each other, Granger causality test. Impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are described.Then using the VECM model to predict the prospects of world trade and world shipping and some suggestions are put forward for the development of chinese foreign trade and shipping industry.