A Study On Classification And Prediction Model On Debris Flow In Taihang Mountain Of Hebei Province

The debris flow is one of the most catastrophic disasters in taihang mountain hebeiprovince and often happens in mountainous watershed, It is the result of comprehensiveeffect including Geology, topography, soil, vegetation, hydrology, meteorology and otherfactors and the product of mountain environmental degradation. Debris flow seriouslythreatened the safety of life and property of local residents, but also the important factors ofecological security threat. Therefore, the study on formation cause of the debris flow,outbreak prediction and disaster management research is very necessary.This paper mainly study the classification of debris through studying the developmentof debris flow hazards and forming process based on the distribution features of debris flowin taihang mountain and formation mechanism of research. According to characteristics ofpotential debris in taihang mountain, take the critical rainfall threshold discriminant method,based on Bayes discriminatory analysis and the basic principle of quantification theoryestablished mathematical model and Model test using Existing material。Through researchthat the following conclusions:(1) The Classification of debris flowthe Classification of debris flow According to the water source, landform features,material composition, for residents and the damage of the formation of human activity andmost of The debris flow belong to rain type-gully type-water type. A debris flow cannaming according to above5aspects, including three as general characteristics and two asactual situation;(2) The prediction of debris flow Based on the critical rainfall threshold discriminantmethodThe debris flow is the combination of many controlling factors including rainfall andland surface environment as the major factors. Therefore, the predictor contains theforepart rainfall and activating rainfall, the debris flow discriminant prediction modelestablished by using the critical rainfall threshold discriminant method and includingrainfall and land surface environment factors.bases on30related data of Typical debrisflow in taihang mountain hebei province. This model reflects the basic and taihangmountain of the actual situation of potential debris consistent; (3) The prediction of debris flow Based on Bayes discriminant analysisUsing the basic principle of Bayes discriminant analysis method, with the help of SPSSsoftware, get a group of debris flow forecast model Through the analysis of rainfall dataof Typical debris flow in taihang mountain hebei province. Forecast model accuracy tosatisfy basically90.0%>80%of their accuracy requirements, so, the forecast modelsuitable for hebei taihang mountain debris flow hazards forecast;(4) the prediction of debris flow Based on the basic principle of numerical theoryWhen the two systems, rainfall and land surface environment, go beyond a certainlimit, the debris flow will occur. Based on the survey data from1956to2004and byusing the basic theory of the theory of quantification statistical analvsis,this paperestablishes a debris flow predictive model in taihang mountain area, And the data of otherdebris flow are used for inspection.