Bayesian Method And The Reconstruction Of The Theoretical System Of Science

Inductive reasoning is proved to be facing difficulties due to it’s absence of effectiveness in logic.Bayesian method brought back the validity of inductive inference of hope.but Popper’s argument of theory’s probability are always zero seriously damaged the base of Bayesian method.Parallel worlds theory by Carnap,in a limited range of understanding,can give the whole theory a initial probability above zero.Then by using Bayesian method, study the degree of believe of the various parts of the theory, and the confidence and the relationship between them.From this,to figure out the structure and operation mode of the theoretical system of scientific analysis,and conclude the measurement of scientific theory of quality and standards of the progress:correctness,accuracy,completeness,conciseness,novelty.Finally,the circumstances of a series of standards and conclusions is applied to study the history of science,try to solve the problem of trade-offs between competing theories of Copernicus revolution,then get to a interesting conclude that the measure standard of theoretical system can all convert into the simplicity of potential auxiliary hypothesis.Due to the use of the objective initial degree of believe, a objective judge method is given to theoretical system of science.The degree of belive computed from this way is no longer the degree of believe of some certain people, but the degree of a theory ’s should be believed. Based on this sense of bias in the objectivism position,the re-examine of the scientific theory system brought us a new picture full of hope.