Research On The Prediction Of The Total Discharge Of Pollutants Of Urban Planning Based On Scenario Analysis

The prediction of pollutant emissions has been an important part ofenvironmental management,based on the urban master planning in China,traditional methods generally are used to predict the regional pollutant emissions.However, the traditional prediction methods lack consideration of many uncertaintyfactors in the future and the change in the regional conditions, the predicted resultis difficult to meet the needs of the current city development.Compared with thetraditional prediction methods, the advantage of scenario analysis is particularlyprominent,because it focus on the long-term assumption.Scenario analysis canprovide early warning,describe the pathway leading to this or that scenario, andscenario simulation is repeatedly tested.Therefore,the scenario analysis enablesparticipants to face the future calmly, it can reduce the uncertainty effectively.Research on the prediction of the total discharge of pollutants of Urbanplanning based on scenario analysis,the article discusses the applicability of thescenario analysis to the prediction of the total discharge of pollutants of Urbanplanning,the article analyze the application of the method in the prediction of thetotal pollutant emissions in the region.The article study the process of scenarioanalysis of the total discharge of pollutants of Urban planning.The articles identifythe influencing factors and the driving force,identify the key uncertainties, developand set a reasonable scenario, describe and analyze scenario.It introduces the wholeprocess of scenario analysis of the total discharge of pollutants, taking the overallplanning of Anqing city as an example.The two important factors ofsocio-economic development goals (GDP) and resource utilization areselected,through scenario analysis, construct three scenarios and predict the totalamount of pollutant emission in Anqing city in2030.The first scenario is forvarious industries extrapolation model, only considering the economic goal of the2030plan,the second scenario is a single optimization model of development,takinginto account the pace of development of different industries, the third scenario isfor the environmental security development model,considering the speed of thedevelopment of different industries and adjusting the speed of economicdevelopment in Anqing city to meet the environmental requirements of the total control.The prediction of the total discharge of pollutants of Urban planning basedon scenario analysis makes policymakers think more deeply,more comprehensive intreating problems of urban future scenarios.The result of scenario analysis ofregional pollutant emissions, based on planning and guide planning,the resultprovide decision support for the city’s industrial structure optimization upgrade andthe rational allocation of resources,and provide a guide for sustainable urbandevelopment.