A Study On Industrial Carbon Emissions Scenario Simulation And Industry Structure Adjustment Based On SD Model

Based on the current severe climate conditions,necessity of carbon reduction has been agreed in the worldwide.In response to climate change,during Copenhagen commitment in 2009,Premier Wen Jiabao made a commitment claiming that in 2020 Chinese carbon intensity would be down 40 to 45 percent compared with 2005.The timely implementation of carbon emission reduction requires an imperative carbon emission reduction in industry.As an important part of the national economy departments and the largest industrial sector in carbon emissions,industry needs to fix the problem about how to realize the balance between the industrial economic development and carbon emission reduction.First of all,this thesis analyzes the present situation of economy development,energy consumption and carbon emissions in the industry.Through literature review,the thesis probes into factors influencing industrial carbon emissions.By conducting Johansen cointegration test between each subindustry carbon intensity and four various influencing factors of carbon emissions,the existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between them is verified.Secondly,based on the theory of system dynamics(SD),industrial carbon emissions SD model is constructed.On account of the prior analysis,the system boundary and feedback loop is determined.The SD model can be divided into four subsystems,namely population,economic development,energy consumption and carbon emissions.In order to testify the validity and stability of the model,Venism PLE software is used to conduct a series of tests like intuitive test,validity check and the integral error test.After all these tests,the SD model is proved to be feasible.That means it can be used in the scenario simulation study at any time.Afterwards,the benchmark scenario simulation is conducted by application of SD model.This thesis makes analysis on the simulation results and checks the completion of target on industrial carbon emissions reduction.Then,respectively based on the industry structure,industry energy consumption structure,and investment in technology,individual adjustment of scene simulation for industrial carbon system is conducted.The simulation results and the completion of target on industrial carbon emission reduction are analyzed as well.Later,on the basis of all these individual adjustments,the thesis sets up comprehensive adjustment scheme for scenariosimulation.By comparing the SD model operation of industrial added value,energy consumption,carbon emission and carbon emission intensity under each scheme set,this thesis picks out the optimal scheme which is closest to industrial carbon emission intensity target and owns stable development of industrial added value at the same time.Based on the above,this thesis comes to the following conclusions: There is no contradiction between industrial carbon emmissions and economic growth.A win-win situation can be reached with adequate policy guide.However,under the current development trend,industry would not be able to reach the goal claiming that in 2020 industrial carbon emission intensity would be down by 50 percent compared with 2005.Through adjusting industry structure,a significant decreasement in industrial energy consumption,carbon dioxide emissions and industrial carbon intensity can be achieved with only tiny effect on the industrial added value.By some ajustments in industrial energy structure,the growth of industrial carbon dioxide emissions can slow down significantly,the industrial carbon emission intensity can be cut while a stable development in industrial added value still on hand.Increasing investment in science and technology level can also contribute to slowing down the growth of industrial carbon emissions and improving energy efficiency without much harm on economy.Last but not least,suggestions for low carbon development in industry are offered as follows: the industry structure should be adequately adjusted,some rectifications for energy-intensive industries are necessary.The structure of industrial energy consumption should be optimized.Technical innovation and improvement for low-carbon technologies should be encouraged.