Decision-making Based On Environmental Risk Assessment:Methods And Case Studies

With rapid economic development, risk events are presenting multiple trends, posing great threats on environment and ecosystem, even affecting social stability. But in the process of traditional decision-making, there was few or even no consideration of the loss and potential hazard of environmental risks. Environmental risks are uncertain, which cause great difficulties to prevent risks. It can not only facilitate to control risks, but also reduce the cost of management fees at the source. In order to achieve sustainable development of economic benefit, social benefit and environmental benefit, it is necessary to take environmental risks and environmental risk sources into consideration in aspects of industrial structure, spatial layout and regional planning.Based on literature analysis, literature review and case studies, this paper summarized a method of decision-making based on environmental risks, which includes risk (source) identification, risk assessment and risk decision-making. By case studies of coastal reclamation planning feasibility research in Fujian province, layout and planning in Zhangpu County, risk analysis of industrial structure in Xiamen and Zhangzhou, this paper reveals feasibility and importance of risk cost-benefit analysis, risk factors to optimization of urban layout, environmental risk kuznets curve. The main results and conclusions are as follows:(1) This paper summarized research progress of environmental risk assessment, risk decision-making, cost-benefit analysis and environmental kuznets curve, especially the scope, advantages and disadvantages of environmental risk assessment methods and cost-benefit analysis methods.(2) Risk cost was introduced into the traditional cost-benefit analysis, which is risk cost-benefit analysis, and the mew method was applied to the coastal reclamation planning feasibility research in Fujian province. The changes of the benefit-cost ratio and net present value between with and without risk cost was compared and analyzed, and the propotion of risk cost in total cost was summarized. Results of case study showed that, with consideration of risk cost, the benefit-cost ratio of Xiaoao and Chuanshi changed from0.43,0.50to0.17,0.19respectively, whereas the benefit-cost ratio of Qinyu and Minzao changed from more than1to less than1, the fesibility of Qinyu and Minzao change. Besides, the proportion of risk cost in total cost of Xiaoao, Chuanshi, Qinyu and Minzao are more than60percent. Case study demonstrated the importance and necessity of environmental risk assessment in decision-making.(3) The role and constrain of environmental risks in spatial layout and planning was considered, so as to provid support for layout optimization. Based on case study of layout and planning in Zhangpu County, the impacts of gas poisons, hazardous materials spill in road transportation, oil spill to Zhangpu County was analyzed. Potential hazard was taken into consideration and relative preventive measures were made in the case. Petrochemical industrial park was located in the north of Gulei, close to Zhangpu County and restricted layout and planning of Zhangpu County. Results of environmental risk assessment also showed that concentrations of benzene and H2S were1600mg/m3,618mg/m3when gas poisons leaked. So it is suggested to move the petrochemical industrial park to south of Gulei. After moving, concentrations of benzene and H2S were780mg/m3,78mg/m3when gas poisons leaked.(4) Environmental risk kuznets curve tries to characterize the relationship between economic development and environmental risks and to determine the status of industrial structure. In case study, high risk industries were selected as environmental risk indicators, the curves between environmental risks and per captia GDP of Xiamen and Zhangzhou were drawn. Results showed that relationship between economic development and environmental risks of Xiamen was in line the inverted U-shaped curve and had reached an inflection point, where per captia GDP was80,000yuan. It is expected that environmental risks of Xiamen will reduce gradually. However, the relationship between economic development and environmental risks of Zhangzhou was still synchronized, environmental risks of Zhangzhou will increase with development of economy. (5) Based on the results of theoretical analysis and case studies, a more reasonable and comprehensive decision-making method based on environmental risks was summarized. In this method, environmental risks affect decision-making through industrial structure, spatial layout and regional planning, which are different levels of decision-making.