Comprehensive Assessment And Optimization Of Air Pollution Prevention And Control Decision-making In Typical Cities

In recent years,regional air pollution problems represented by fine particulate matter PM2.5and ozone O3 have become increasingly prominent,seriously threatening the ecological environment and the physical and mental health of the people.In order to improve ambient air quality,a series of air pollution prevention and control measures and specific plans led by the"Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan"were implemented since 2013,and considerable results were achieved.However,there is still a phenomenon of excessive PM2.5pollution in some cities.The industrial structure of heavy industries,the energy structure of fossil fuels,and the traffic structure of road transportation determine the complexity,arduousness and long-term nature of air pollution control in our country.Therefore,carrying out comprehensive decision-making assessment and optimization of air pollution prevention and control is a prerequisite for formulating scientific,effective,economical and reasonable pollutant emission control strategies,in order to continuously improve air pollution.Based on the WRF-CMAQ simulation system and the pf-RSM response surface model,the decision support technology platform for air pollution prevention and control was integrated with Least-COst Control Strategy Optimization applying genetic algorithm,and furthrer was applied to quantify the effects of the implementation plan of the‘Ten Measures’for air pollution control,in the typical city Jinan,from the perspective of emission reduction costs,pollution control and human health benefits;Furthermore,the optimization and cost-benefit assessment of air pollution prevention and control strategy were carried.The results show that:(1)After the implementation of the"Ten Measures",the reduction rates of SO2,NOx,VOCs,and primary PM2.5 were 39%,24%,42%,41%respectively,and this scenario could reduce the PM2.5concentration in Jinan in 2018 by 19%compared with 2017.The additional cost of pollution control was about 4.70×10~8 yuan,and the benefit/cost ratio was 1.40.The reduction of local dust emissions with the lowest reduction cost per emission contributed the most to the reduction of PM2.5 concentration.Therefore,it is recommended to further strengthen the emission reduction of dust sources in the next stage in Jinan city preferentially.(2)The reduction rates of SO2,NOx,VOCs,primary PM2.5 obtained through inverse computation of strategy optimization were 46%,20%,42%,60%,respectively,and the additional cost of pollution control was about 4.69×10~8 yuan under this strategy.Compared with the“Ten Measures”,the optimization strategy increased the emission reduction rates of SO2 and primary PM2.5,and decreased the reduction rate of NOx that has a negative effect on O3,which meets the air quality target while reducing the cost of pollution control as much as possible,and the benefit/cost ratio was improved to 1.88.The technology platform was used to evaluate that the“ten measures”and optimization strategies can improve PM2.5 pollution with a certain extent and obtain considerable health benefits in this article,which can provide an scientific basis and feasibility reference for air pollution prevention and control in the next stage in Jinan city,and has application demonstration and reference value for the gradual promotion and use of the technology platform in other cities in China,which has important scientific significance and practical value.