Study And Application On The Prediction Model Of Ocean Oil Spill

With the continuous development and utilization of marine resources, the ocean oil spill accidents occur frequently, do serious damages to the ocean ecology system and environment, and destroy the sustainable development of the social resources and economic, so it is particularly important for the forecast and prevention of ocean oil spill accidents.This thesis briefly describes the current situation and the damages of ocean oil spill, and makes a detailed review of oil spill from it leaks until disappears and goes through series changes of diffusion, drift, decentralized, complex weathering process and so on. For the frequent ocean oil spill accidents, this thesis summarizes the development status and basic theory research of domestic and foreign ocean oil spill mathematical models, and derives the basic flow diffusion control equation of spilled oil. Then the convection diffusion model and oil particle model theory are combined, and a mathematical motion model of ocean oil spill drift diffusion is established, in order to forecast the trajectory of oil spills, so a strong basis for the subsequent accident emergency decision is provided. According to the drift prediction model of oil spill, this thesis also uses C#programming language to compile a calculation program to calculate the data of oil spill drift trajectories, get the diffusion radius, pollution area and other data of oil spill under different wind field and conditions. According to the basic principles and methods described above, this thesis sets the wind and water environment of ocean, obtains the drift diffusion trajectory of oil spill, so that the drift process can be more clear and intuitive.According to establish the correct motion models of oil spill, simulate and predict a series of changes in process of oil spill accident, can be better for people to monitor the oil spill on the sea accurately and real-timely, more timely and effective to develop plan for oil spill accidents which occur in sudden, make prevention and emergency work, and as far as possible to reduce the losses caused by oil spills.