The Trend Of The Rural Population’s Flow And The Evolution Direction Of The Village’s Structure

China is a typical agricultural country, agricultural population occupies a large proportion, thedevelopment of rural society in China occupies a pivotal position in the economic development. Currentlyour country society and economy is in the transformation period, urbanization and industrialization arerapidly developing, our country has a typical dual economic structure, which means that the ruralpopulation is flowing to the town, which also reflects the order of time and space of urbanization in China.Rural population flow is the inevitable result of social and economic development, which has importanteffect on our country social economy and various aspects, especially it is significant to the development ofthe village. This article’s the rural population flow and village development are based on the rapiddevelopment of urbanization in China, using the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, thecombination of macro and micro research method, and then make a preliminary analysis of the trend of therural population flow and the development of the village’s structure, research on the rural population flowand structure of the village of this paper has a certain practical significance.Research of this paper is to conduct the on-the-spot investigation, in order to ensure the obtaineddata is reliable and true, I select a typical traditional agricultural areas, in February2012to research, doin-depth visit to the230peasant households and fill in the questionnaire, investigate of the status of therural population flow of the village. According to the need of this study, I use the means of literature, referto the relevant literature of rural population and the development of village, fully correctly understand theimpact of the rural population flow on village laid the foundation; Collected the rural population flow datathrough field investigation, and according to the approximate number of migrants in recent years, using thegrey system forecasting model-GM (1,1), predict the number of migrants to the village in5years,10and20years, reflecting on the growth trend; By adopting the method of qualitative and quantitative analysis,Imake the further analysis of the rural population flow’s influence on the village structure on the datareceived, and put forward to some countermeasures and suggestions. This article mainly divides into fiveparts, the main content of this paper is as follows:The first chapter is the introduction, mainly on the selected topic background, research purposeand significance, the basic research framework, research methods and innovation of this paper, the related study of this paper are summarized.The second chapter is literature review, mainly for the review and comment on the research ofdomestic and foreign relevant theories about the rural population flow and village, and sum up theexperience of the foreign rural population flow and the construction of the village. On the basis ofpredecessors’ research, I find that the research between the village structure and the rural population flowis relatively small, mostly the research is on the influence of the rural population flow to cities and the ruraleconomy, seek the breakthrough point of the research, in the micro angle of a village, this paper is studiedon the rural population flow’s influence of village, which lays a solid theoretical foundation for the researchin this paper.The third chapter is the related overview of rural population flow and the village, I define thebasic concept of the rural population flow as well as the village, and summarize the present situation, thenecessity of rural population flow、phase evolution and the development of the village、the villagestructure’s present situation and so on, then have preliminary understanding on the status of the ruralpopulation flow in China and the status of the villages.The fourth chapter is the case, investigation and analysis of Y village. In Y village survey of230households, I analyzed the basic information of the230families, the flow of the villagers’ present situation,at the same time I set up the grey system prediction model-GM (1,1) forecast model,on base of the Yvillage’s number of migrants from2007to2011, then forecast respectively the village’s future outflowpopulation, using the quantitative analysis. Coming to the trend of the migrants’ number in this village isincreasing. And through the analysis of the survey for the village migrants,I come to the basic situation thatthe flow direction, employment properties, flow rate, etc., as well as the influence to the Y village’seconomic structure, social structure and spatial structure.The fifth chapter is about the trend of the rural population flow and the evolution direction ofvillage construction. In this chapter I mainly summarize the trend of the rural population flow, job nature,quantity etc. Through the analysis the positive influence and negative influence, which are produced by therural population flow to the village structure, I preliminary summary the direction of the village structure’sevolution, and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions on the current of the rural populationflow and village development.