Safety Assessment Of PBN Flight Procedure In Terminal Area

Safety is the lifeline and eternal theme of civil aviation. With the rapid development of civilaviation, flight flow continues to increase, and countries in the world in the terminal area widelydesign and implement PBN flight procedures to replace the traditional flight procedures, but thesafety of its operation urgently needs a scientific, quantitative safety assessment. Based on this, themain work of this paper is identifying the risk of conflict scenarios when the PBN flight proceduresoperates in the terminal area, and according to the conflict scenarios to establish flight conflict riskcalculation model for quantitative risk analysis.In this paper establish flight conflict risk calculation model for the two risk scenarios which arethe flight conflict of cross or aggregation traffic flow and the flight conflict of parallel instrumentapproach in the final leg. In the calculation model, it establishes the error model of deviation from thenominal trajectory. In the error model, it presents a method based on the stochastic process ofBrownian motion to describe the random motion due to the interfering factors lead aircraft. Thedeviation from the nominal trajectory due to navigation error and interference factors combinednominal trajectory synthesized the actual aircraft flight four-dimensional trajectory, and based on theactual flight four-dimensional trajectory guide to the distance between aircraft every moment, withthis distance smaller than the separation standard as the criteria for judging to calculate flight collisionprobability. Finally, in accordance with the Hangzhou Xiaoshan Airport as an example, it implementsPBN flight procedures operation, and conducts a safety assessment of the PBN flight proceduresoperation in accordance with the safety assessment process. In the case, the airport workers useHAZOP method to identify risk scenarios, and calculate flight collision probability with PBN flightprocedure run quantitative risk analysis model mentioned in this article and Monte Carlo simulationmethod, so as to make quantitative risk analysis for risk scenarios.