Application Of Bayesian Network To Flight Safety Evaluation In Civil Aviation

Ensure flight safety is the eternal theme in civil aviation field. Especially in recent years, thevolume of civil aviation increased rapidly, so more attention should be paid to the flight safety.Therefore, to explore the risk factors affecting flight safety, become an important subject to maintainflight safety.In order to establish a simple and effective civil aviation flight safety evaluation model toanalysis risk factors affecting flight safety. This study through the review of literature in flight safety,according to the literature analysis and combination of the civil aviation accident data, we establishevaluation index of civil aviation in aspect of person’s factor, mechanical factors, and environmentalfactors. According to the risk factors have influence each other and there have uncertainty. So in thispaper we use Bayesian network which characteristics is a probabilistic model. First of all, this paperbriefly introduces the Bayesian network’s principle and method. And then, we use Bayesian network’slearning ability, to establish Bayesian network model of flight safety evaluation in civil aviation.Finally, by using Bayesian network interference method, we calculated the influence of risk factors toaccident and each risk factor importance degree when accident happens. The result shows thatBayesian network is a simple and practical, it can analysis risk factor objectively.