The Whole Process Consulting Mode Based On Bayesian Network Engineering Project Risk Assessment Studyt

Whole process mode of engineering construction has gradually emerged in the field of engineering construction in our country.Consulting companies should provide consulting service throughout the whole process of engineering construction.Risk assessment of the whole process is of greater difficulty because there are more risk factors and greater range of interaction between risks and probabilities.Only by accurately and efficiently identifying risks and evaluating risk occurrence probability,can we make targeted risk response plans in advance.Bayesian network reasoning is an important method to deal with complex probability inference,which is suitable for effective reasoning and evaluation of risk occurrence probability of engineering projects.In this paper,consulting risk of the whole process of engineering construction is taken as the research object,and empirical research is conducted with Bayesian network.The following three studies have been completed:In the whole process of engineering construction consulting risk identification,the WBs-risk source identification method is selected,and the whole process of engineering construction risks are divided into five key risk factors,namely main body,technology,contract,environment and material and equipment risks.Then,17 risk factors are identified through the matrix,and the whole process of engineering construction consulting risk identification list is established.The whole process of engineering construction consulting risk assessment model is constructed based on Bayesian network.Five key risk factors and 17 risk factors defined by the WBs-risk source matrix were used to construct the Bayesian network of the fault tree,determine the structural parameters of the Bayesian network,establish the probability fuzzy number of expert interview statements and the function membership relationship,and finally,combined with the key risk factors,determine the key risk factors through causal reasoning and diagnostic reasoning,significance comparative analysis.Through the field investigation of the construction project of a third-class hospital in A City,an empirical study was carried out on the consulting risk assessment and countermeasures during the whole construction process.By applying the Bayesian network parameters transformed by the WBs-risk source of the whole-process consulting risk identification list and the expert interview statement,the causal reasoning and diagnostic reasoning of the risk factors in the whole-process consulting mode of the project are carried out,and the importance degree is analyzed,and the key risk factors and their characteristics are obtained.The risk assessment of the whole process consulting project is carried out and the corresponding countermeasures are proposed.The construction process of this project also verified part of the research results,which provided technical support for the risk identification and management of this project,and also had reference value for the whole process risk consulting and management of similar engineering projects.