Aircraft Conflict Detection Based On4D Trajectory Prediction

With the continued growth of the national economy since we followed the policy of the reformand opening, civil aviation has been rapid development and the contradiction between the limitedairspace resources with the increasing traffic flow has been more serious, especially in the terminalarea. This increases the possibility of conflict between the aircraft greatly increased, adding to theworkload of air traffic controller. In order to ensure flight separation between aircrafts in flight, thereis a urgent need for effective conflict detection tools to help controllers to adjust the interval betweenaircrafts. Based on this, this paper conducts a comprehensive and in-depth study for aircraft trajectoryprediction and conflict detection technology.Effective conflict detection is baesd on accurate trajectory, and trajectory is the fundmental ofconflict detection. On trajectory prediction, first this paper conducts a systemized scientific andin-depth study for models of aircraft TP system, details the BADA aircraft performance model andeatablish a TP method based on this model. By Beijing Capital Airport Runway36L STAR forexample, the paper compare the simulation results and radar tracking data and analysis theeffectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Then this paper propose a hybrid estimation algorithm thatutilize knowledge of aircraft flight plans and nominal flight profiles to improve tracking of aircraftmovements around airports. Based on aircraft movement’s model, this paper derive a conditionalmode transition matrix that is dependent on the continous state of the aircraft.On conflict detection, first this paper introduce the aircraft safty separation standard andprotected area model in terminal area in detail, analysis the method of conflict detection: determinalalgorithm and problastic algorithm. Then, this paper proposed a correction algorithm based on Paiellialgorithm, which is used in CTAS Conflict Probe. Applying this algorithms to simulate and analyze,based on the previous prediction results. Comparing with STCA algoritm, this algorithm can reducethe false rate effectively, showing the superiority of this algorithm.Finally, this paper develops conflict detection systems on the basis of the above trajectoryprediction and conflict detection algorithm. The system meets the low-false and real-timerequirements, it has friendly interface, simple operation at the same time. This system provides apractical method for the terminal area short-term conflict alert.