A Predict Method Of Quality Fail On Automobile Based On Weibull Distribution Analysis

With the consumers demanding on the quality of the automobile increased, the marketshare and profits of the automobile enterprise was guaranteed by the quality management andcost control in the intense market environments. Product failure research has been seen as aquality management goal setting important topic. Meanwhile, with the development of qualitymanagement quantifying the trend and the warranty policy changing, develop new products inthe future scientific and effective quality management target gradually becoming themainstream of the major car companies research direction.In this article, a predict method was introduced for quality fail on automobile which wasbased on the investigation of the process for the development of new models, and the passedvehicle of the data samples, combining with the weibull distribution theory and specific topicsin quality management, the rigorous and effective mathematical model is established, usingMinitab software to quantify the parameters in the model, a practical and effective qualityprediction method was proposed in this paperFirst, mainly introduced the research status of the current automotive industry qualityprediction method, the shortage and limitation of the normal distribution and the curve fittingmethod applied in automobile enterprise was pointed out,a new forecasting method called APredict Method of Quality Fail on Automobile was proposed and studied.Second, the application of weibull distribution function prediction method process wasstudied. Based on the original model data in the past automobile, the key failure parts list wasselected, the weibull distribution method was analyzed on the failure data of these key partsto get the important life characteristic parameter, the accumulative failure rate of these keyparts was predicted combining with warranty policy changing and the characteristic parameter,also the countermeasure effect of these key parts was considered. the cumulative failure rateof these key parts was added to predict the new vehicle accumulative failure rate within1yearsales during the new warranty period.Finally, the effectiveness of the prediction method was evaluated. the actual marketresults was satisfied with the predicted quality target curve, which was proved that the methodcould effectively predict the quality of the new vehicle, the prediction method was based onthe theoretical basis and mathematical modeling process, which is easy to understand theoperation process.