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Small Sample Reliability Statistical Analysis Based On Bayes Theory

Posted on:2016-07-23Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J P LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2272330479499085Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Reliability statistics is an important research topic in the field of re-liability. With the reference to the international relevant documents, this paper studies on the following aspects about reliability statistics. This pa-per includes five chaptersThe first chapter is introduction, introducing the researching purpose, meanings of this paper and the work that existed.In the second chapter, we give a new analytical method to estimate the parameters of the mixed Weibull distribution.In the third chapter, when failure probability pi’s prior density kernel of Zero-failure data (ti,ni) is lnb{1-pi) in time ti, the reliability estimation of the products is obtained by Bayesian theorem. An actual test data is computed by using the proposed method. It turns out that the proposed method accords with the engineering priors.In the forth chapter, in view of the defects in power system reliability analysis that discrete Markov chain model simulation stays longer in the same state often, from the viewpoint of operation and based on continu-ous time Markov chain and under the premise that equipment failure rate complies with exponential distribution characteristics, a model, by which fast analytical analysis on power system operation reliability can be carried out, is proposed.In the last chapter, we sum up what we have done in this paper.
Keywords/Search Tags:Bayesian estimation, failure rate, Mixed-Weibull distribution, zero-failure data, Markov chain, power system, mean time to first failure
PDF Full Text Request
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