Probability Distribution And Characteristics Study Of Container Liner’s Arrival Discipline

According to materials, the phenomenon that the actual throughout capacity of berth exceeds the design throughout capacity of berth is quite common among China’s coastal ports. So more and more scholars focus on the parameters of design throughout capacity of berth. As to the importance of berth occupancy rate, the arrival law of container liner attracts more and more attention. The operation modes of container liner and traditional cargo ship are totally different, the container liner’s operation mode is not random but organized. So it is necessary to look for a new probability distribution to describe it including Poisson distribution. This article analyzes a large amount of container liner’s arrival records and brings in the new concept coupling, the expression of coupling degree to explain the characteristics of container liner systematically.This article selects15628ships’ arrival records(2009-2011) and analyzes it in3different ranges. With the help of Chi-squared test, the conclusion can be made: as to the whole container ships, its time interval obeys1order of Erlang distribution and its coupling degree is low; as to the ships of simple line, its time interval may obey1order of Erlang distribution and its coupling degree is low or high order of Erlang distribution and its coupling degree is high; as to the fleet, its time interval obeys high order of Erlang distribution and its coupling degree is high.With the strengthening of container liner’s coupling degree, the arrival of container ships becomes more and more regular. So the berth occupancy rate increases apparently and the throughout capacity of berth enlarges obviously.