The Impact Of Climate Change On Fire Regime In Heilongjiang Province

Climate is a key factor for affecting forest fires.Currently dominated by warm and dryclimate change has had a significant impact on the global dynamics of forest fires. This paperfocuses on the correlation of the temporal and spatial dynamics of forest fires withmeteorological factors and FWI indexes. By analyzing Heilongjiang Province from1986to2010temperature, precipitation and FWI indexes changes, combined with the occurrence offorest fires, area conditions, we can get the impactabout climate change on the dynamics offorest fires.The paper analyzed the interannual variabilities of fires and burned area in Heilongjiangregion, based on the fire statistics data for the priod1986~2010. There is an increase trend fornumber of fires and burn area. The number of forest fires reached a high level in the year of1987,1996,2000and2003, while the burned area were in1987,2003and2006. The numberof forest fires and burned area both reached a low level in1989,1997and2010. The most firesmonth is May and September and the least is July and November for each year.The fires in Heilongjiang province during1986~2010can divide into two main types,lightning-caused fires and human-caused fires, which the proportion of the two types is48.4%and38.4%, and the remaining13.2%with unkown-caused. We can devide Heilongjiangprovince into three forest regions, which are Xiaoxing’anling, Daxing’anling andZhangguangcailing Mountains, Laoye Mountainsa and Wanda Mountains, and the proportionof fires for the three regions is50.92%,27.86%and20.40%. Most of the forest fires inDaxing’anling occurred in coniferous forests, which altitude is525~1385m. While most of theforest fires in Xiaoxing’anling occurred in coniferous and broad-leaved forests, which altitudeis25~525m,and the fires in coniferous forests are more than those in broad-leaved forests. Andmost of the forest fires in Zhangguangcailing Mountains, Laoye Mountainsa and WandaMountains n coniferous and broad-leaved forests, which altitude is41~525m, and the fires inbroad-leaved forests are more than those in coniferous forests.There is an increase trend for mean temperature, which the magnitude for temperatureincrease trend is higher than global average level, and a decrease trend for mean precipitationfor Heilongjiang province in1986~2010. So as a basis, the future may face with more intensecliamte form, for example, high temperature, low precipitation and extreme dry weather, andfuture forest fires will become more severe. By the result of the correlation between temperature and precipitation with forest fires andburned area, there are more forest fires and bured area in the years with high temperature andlow precipiton. While there are not significant correlation between temperture and precipitationwith fires and burned area.Therefore, the paper analyzed the relationship between fire weather indexes and forestfires, and it shows FWI system is suitable for Heilongjiang region, which can accuratelyindicate forest fire danger. There are more forest fires when the FFMC, DMC and DC value arehigh. FWI value can indicate fireline intensity and difficulty of burn, combined with ISI andBUI. The correlation coefficient between FWI value with forest fies is0.554, and thecorrelation is significat at0.01level.Fire dangers for Heilongjiang province can be devided into6grades, which is low,moderate, high, very high and extreme. The proportion of daynumber for each grade in a yearis48.3%、24.6%、15.2%、9.4%and2.5%. The change of sonthly serverity rating(SSR) forHeilongjiang province in1986~2010is not obvious, and there interannual change is irregular,and from1986to2010, this spring SSR showed a greater fluctuation than summer andautumn.Summer SSR had an opposite trend of fluctuation to spring. Autumn SSR increasedsignificantly form2000to2010.