The Estimated Carbon Sinks Impact And Factor Analysis Of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone

The increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is gradually changing thebalance of landing ecosystem and threatening the human life. Therefore, reducing theemission load of carbon dioxide and decreasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in theatmosphere are now the problems of the world’s common concern. The forest ecosystemplays an extremely important role in absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere,reducing the problems of the greenhouse and keeping the global carbon balance. With theworld’s concerns on the issue of global warming as well as the promulgation ofMarrakech Agreement, the Copenhagen Accord, the Kyoto Protocol and other documents,forest carbon sink has became a core issuse of governments and scientists that concern. Asone of the top ten ecological function protected areas in China, Poyang Lake EcologicalEconomic Zone plays an important role of the entire National River and forest ecosystems.In this paper, by analyzing the dynamic characteristics of the carbon storage of tree layer inJiangxi Province in nearly30years, for evaluating the function of carbon sink, indicatingthe effect of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone’s timber production, forest tendingarea, the area of forest pests and diseases, burned area, artificial reforestation area, theaverage annual precipitation, the average annual temperature and other factors on forestcarbon sink, to provide basic data and references for our country’s regional scale forestcarbon sink research and the carbon sinks transactions of Poyang Lake EcologicalEconomic Zone in the future.In cognizance of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone ’s particular circumstances,based on the data of seven times researches of forest sources in Jiangxi and fully studies ofnatural, social economy status, the paper has calculated the seventh forest resources carbonsink of Poyang Lake ecological Economic Zone is517.09×106tons, the research alsofound out that forest carbon stocks showing a tendency of down first and then up, itindicates that forest carbon stocks plays a positive role in general.In the paper, using the application of time series theory, forest carbon stocks isselected as the endogenous variable, timber production, forest tending area, the area offorest pests and diseases, the burned area, artificial reforestation area, average annualrainfall, the average annual temperature of seven indicators as endogenous variables, to establish the forest carbon sinks influencing factors vector autoregression model (Vectorautoregression, VAR model for short), on the basis of the stability test of the VAR model,using the generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition of thevariables on forest carbon dynamics impact and influence weight. The results turns out thatchanges in forest carbon storage mostly influenced by their own disturbance and showing agradually decreasing trend, while the other variables disturbance of Poyang LakeEcological Economic Zone in forest carbon storage showed a gradually increasingtrend.From the long-term look,57.18%of the fluctuation in forest carbon storageinfluenced by its own decision,1.79%by the volume of production,7.19%impact ofartificial reforestation area,15.37%of the area of forest tending,3.56%of the area offorest pests and diseases wood production,0.51%affected by the forest fire area,14.3%ofaverage annual temperature,0.09%of the average annual precipitation.