| Water resources shortage is one of the most important characteristic and also akey factor in restricting ecological security and economic development in thenorthwest arid area of China. For this reason, all sorts of development must be carriedout by considering the safety of water resources as precondition in the northwest aridarea. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, lying in the arid area, is facing raredevelopment opportunities from the large-scale development of West China and thenew round of counterpart support by the government. However, the situation of waterresources shortage must be paid attention by the government with the economicdevelopment, particularly whether water demand for the economic development willexceed water resources capacity. So it is essential to discuss the optimum scale ofoasis development according to the water resources situation. With an aim to providetheoretical support to the government for the sustainable development in Hotan Oasis,southern Xinjiang, water supply quantity and water demand in Hotan Oasis arecalculated in this study and then the optimum development scale for Hotan Oasis isquantified with available data (e.g., remote sensing, hydrological, meteorological,economic, national and provincial major function oriented zone planning,construction aid projects of Beijing). And the results are summarized as follows:(1) The total water supply quantity in2010is24.67×108m3-30.84×108m3according to the calculation of limited river diversion, water regulating amount ofreservoirs, and allowable groundwater exploitation in Hotan Oasis. And the totalwater supply quantity of Hotan Oasis in2020and2030is predicted to be25.45×108m3-31.65×108m3and26.29×108m3-32.46×108m3, respectively.(2) The current non-agricultural water demand of Hotan Oasis is2.76×108m3based on the analysis and calculation of economic development data. Taking the trendof economic development into consideration, the non-agricultural water demand ofHotan Oasis in2020and2030will be3.47×108m3-4.01×108m3and4.05×108m3-5.80×108m3, respectively. The agricultural water demand of Hotan Oasis is24.67×108m3-30.84×108m3on the basis of the land use condition and irrigationtechnique in2010. The prediction of agricultural water demand is based on theprinciple of water total amount control, leading to21.47×108m3-28.18×108m3and20.49×108m3-28.41×108m3in2020and2030, respectively.(3) The equation is established to evaluate threshold of development scale forHotan Oasis, which is treated as a case study. With this equation, the theoreticalthreshold of Hotan Oasis development scale is2.47×106mu-3.35×106mu in2010, and it will be2.79×106mu-3.88×106mu and2.89×106mu-4.24×106mu in2020and2030respectively. Note that the range of threshold is larger than reality in index selectionand calculation due to the theoretical extreme calculation. Considering the oasisdevelopment reality, oasis suitable acreage is calculated. And the appropriate scale ofoasis development is2.61×106mu in2010and will be2.96×106mu-3.03×106mu and3.06×106mu-3.32×106mu in2020and2030respectively in Hotan Oasis. The currentdevelopment scale of Hotan Oasis is3.01×106mu, which have been much more thanappropriate area and close to the theoretical threshold.(4) The land development is apparently restricted by its water resources in HotanOasis. Thus, the ecological security and water resources should be considered for allsorts of development in the Hotan Oasis, particularly with the Western developmentand Xinjiang support in China. Considering the reality in Hotan Oasis, the localgovernment is suggested to make full use of its special agricultural products and raretourism resources to develop the agricultural industrialization and tertiary industry(e.g., tourism) in Hotan Oasis, which can promote the local income (especially forfarmers) and living quality and even lead the local economy to be wealth and stablefor the border region. |
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