Study On Medical And Health Services System Of Shanxi Province Based On System Dynamics

Entering the21st century, China’s economy has developed to a new stage. As a developing country, its rapid economic development has gained concern in various countries. Almost all of the industry has emerged as the characteristics of rapid development, and adapt to level of economic development, but health services closely related to people’s lives is a little stagnant. It means that our health care system is not commensurate with the level of economic development.Moreover, with the improvement of people’s quality of life, the demand of health services also increases, and demand tend is to be diversified. However, China’s medical and health service system is not yet mature, and there is a lot of lack of medical and health services, so it can not meet the market demand.Then the always existed problem "shortage of health resource and exorbitant expense in healthcare"is not solved fundamentally.In order to effectively solve the problem ""shortage of health resource and exorbitant expense in healthcare" and improve the level of medical and health service in our country, first is to effectively analyze the medical and health service system of our country. Therefore, from the perspective of system science theory, this paper puts forward an argument that medical and health service system is a complicated system. In order to improve the accuracy of the research and the convenience of data collection, this paper use based Shanxi Province (which has much obvious problems) as the research object.As a market, there exists in medical and health services market supply and demand sides—medical and health institutions (the supplier) and patients or patients with potential (the buyer). Because of its particularity, there is a third party organization. From the analysis of subjects who participate medical and health services and their relationships,this paper builds a system dynamics model of health services. On the one hand,the model generally and qualitatively analyzes the internal structure of medical and health service system, then using feedback structure and system flow diagrams clearly show the relationship between the various factors within the system; on the other hand, using Vensim PLE5.11software combined with historical data of Shanxi Province to quantify or quantitative analysis of the existing problems in Shanxi Province, and do predict of the development trend of medical and health services. Finally, discussing the results of simulation and found that the future will also exist in medical and health services or even more serious problems, and puts forward suggestions and measures to solve these problems.The main conclusions of this reaserch:(1) the medical and health service system is a complex dynamic system. It includes urben medical and health subsystem and city medical and health subsystem,then the two subsystem both include medical and health institution subsystem,population subsystem and a third subsystem,each subsystem interacts with the other.(2)System dynamics can be used to forecast the development trend in Shanxi Province medical and health services.(3)By analysing the problems existing in Shanxi Province medical and health services and the problems can be exist in future,this paper puts forword to some stategies:rationally allocate health resources;improve the medical environment,especially the grassroots medical environment,and improve the incentive system;clear the function of medical institutions at all levels,establish a strict referral system;strenthen the medical aand health care knowledge and prevention knowledge propaganda.