Study On The Relationship Between Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding And Seasonal Vairation Of Climatic Factors

Objective： To verify the possible existence of a seasonal pattern in the onset of uppergastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and its correlation with meteorological factors in Jilinprovince，instruct clients to take corresponding preventive health care measures as early aspossible, the incidence and complications of UGIB would be reduced significantly.Methods：All patients consecutively admitted to First Hospital of Jilin Universitybetween January1,2011and December31,2012, whose diagnosis was UGIB. Any relationwith month and quarter of occurrence were determined, and statistical analysis of therelationship between the incidence of UGIB and meteorological data was also maderetrospectively.Results：A total of681patients were enrolled in this study,509patients were male(74.74%),172female (25.26%), and the ratio was2.96:1. The age range from18to103[mean （58.7±15.8）] years old, in which the young group contained63cases (9.25%), themiddle-aged group309cases (45.37%), and the elderly group312cases(45.81%). Thenumber of UGIB cases occurred in spring, summer, autumn, winter was141,143,201,196respectively, the difference was statistically significant（x2=25.11，P＜0.01）. The incidenceof bleeding in autumn and winter was significantly higher than in spring and summer（58.30%vs41.70%, P＜0.05），and the incidence of bleeding in autumn was substantiallyhigher than in spring and summer（29.52%vs20.70%、29.52%vs21.0%，P＜0.05）. Theincidence was relatively higher in autumn and its peak was in October; the incidence wasrelatively lower in spring and its trough was in April. Spearman bivariate correlation analysisshowed that the association between the onset of UGIB per month with the mean monthlymeteorological factors was that atmospheric pressure was the most significant（rho=0.738，P=0.000）, followed by temperature（rho=-0.533，P=0.007）, next was human comfort index（rho=-0.462，P=0.023），but the association between the incidence of UGIB each monthand wind speed（rho=-0.359，P=0.085）, relative humidity （rho=0.168，P=0.431） and temperature diurnal difference（rho=-0.005，P=0.98） was poor. Furthermore, put the formertwo factors into multiple linear regression analysis indicated that only the mean monthlyatmospheric pressure have an independent effect on the number of UGIB cases occurredeach month（P=0.002）, after adjusting the effect of the mean monthly temperature factor（P=0.055）. Finally, the linear regression equation was established, the incidence of UGIBper month in our hospital=-1211.401+0.349×the mean monthly temperature+1.254×themean monthly atmospheric pressure.Conclusions:（1）There was seasonal fluctuation in upper gastrointestinal bleeding,and the prevalence in autumn and winter was significantly higher than in spring and summerin Jilin province, where the subfrigid zone climate is predominated.（2）The incidence ofUGIB and the mean monthly atmospheric pressure was positive correlated, while the meanmonthly temperature was negative correlated. By multivariate linear regression analysis, wecan establish the predictive equation, which can be used for medical meteorological forecast.（3）Human comfort index and its grading standard have some closely bearing on the onsetof UGIB, easily understandable, suitable for popular science propaganda and the preventionof UGIB.