Analysis And Forecasting Of Major Infectious Diseases In Wendeng From1956to2012

ObjectiveConventionally, a multi-stage monitoring data for a single analysis of infectious diseases, a variety of diseases not Overall incidence surveillance data analysis of the situation, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of the focus of the incidence of infectious diseases, the system. In this study, Wendeng1956-2012major notifiable infectious diseases historical data,methods of descriptive epidemiology, pathogenesis trend analyzes focus Wendeng report infectious diseases. The level of understanding of the pathogenesis of Wenden and constitute the major infectious diseases, to explore and analyze the main factors influencing the growth and decline of infectious diseases, prevention summarize the experience and try to ARIMA model as the basic method to predict Wenden major infectious diseases hepatitis B incidence trend for infectious diseases Wendeng create dynamic forecasting model for the development of infectious disease prevention and control measures to provide valid scientific theory.Methods1.The application description epidemiological methods were used for the analysis of infections epidemic trend and seasonal characteristics of the main statutory report from1956to2012in Wendeng. Selection of key control diseases were analyzed after2000. Through the analysis of the long-term trend of hand foot and mouth disease,Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, viral hepatitis using descriptive epidemiological methods;By describing the age,gender,occupationdisease distribution and analysis of epidemic characteristics of the main infections.2. The application of time series analysis methods of ARIMA model in the analysis and forecast on the incidence rate of hepatitis B in Wendeng.The Main Results:1. General situation of the incidence rate of infections from1956to2012From1956to2012, The average incidence rate of the main infections has decreased. The total incidence rate of infections in the years1956-1969was higher. The total incidence rate of infections decreased from966.42/100,000in1950s to123.44/100,000in2000.In57years, there were3peaks, the first peak appeared in1959with incidence rate of2516.81/100,000;the second one in1964with incidence rate of1710.96/100,000; The third peak in1982with incidence rate of811.06/100,000.During the1960s to1970s,the total incidence rate of infections incidence decreased total. After1993the total incidence rate keep with a lower level.In1960s, respiratory infections took the first place. After1970s it was maily intestinal infections.;the spectrum of disease of top five infectious changed in different year; in2000s, viral hepatitis, dysentery, epidemic hemorrhagic with fever became the spectrum of disease before three.2.Trends in the incidence of three kinds of main infectious diseases in Wendeng from2000to2012Epidemiological characteristics of hand foot mouth disease for the age distribution of children under5years old in the main, accounting for78.43%of the total incidence; occupation distribution in scattered children and kindergarten children, the cases were distributed throughout the distribution, occurs in a year, mainly concentrated in summer and autumn.The average annual incidence rate of Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome was3.26/10million, with a downward trend, except the port harbor management committee without the occurrence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever occurred in all cases, the villages and towns, but the small number of cases, was highly sporadic. The incidence from4to July, cases have also occurred in other months. The farmers are the main disease groups.The incidence of viral hepatitis in1956to1973years is relatively stable, in1974to1992the incidence rate is relatively high, then decreased. The incidence of hepatitis A declined, was highly sporadic. The hepatitis B incidence rate assumes the trend of escalation, and seasonal fluctuation is not obvious, the township has the morbidity.According to the forecast model choice appropriate feature time series data, with relatively stable rise (or fall) trend and high incidence of disease (such as hepatitis B) can be considered to predict the incidence of ARIMA model. According to the hepatitis B incidence fitting model from1996to2012, predict the onset rate of hepatitis B in the80.03/100,000.Conclusion:1. From1956to2012, The average incidence rate of the main infections has decreased. In1960s, respiratory infections took the first place.After1970s it was maily intestinal infections.2. In2000s, viral hepatitis, dysentery, epidemic hemorrhagic with fever became the spectrum of disease before three. The hepatitis B incidence rate assumes the trend of escalation, and seasonal fluctuation is not obvious, the township has the morbidity.In2013, prevention and control of the situation in hand foot and mouth disease is still severe. According to the hepatitis B incidence fitting model from1996to2012, predict the onset rate of hepatitis B in the80.03/100,000.