Research On Accident Disasters And Its Decision Problem Based On Fuzzy Cognitive Map

In recent years, many kinds of emergency events occur frequently all over theworld, such as Tsunami in Indonesia in2004, Haiti Earthquake in2010, Fukushimanuclear accident in2011, and so on.These disaster events bring great harm to the livesand property of people in all countries, affecting the economic development and socialstability. Unfortunately, these unexpected events happen one after another in ourcountryas well as in other countries, for example,Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan Province in2009, Zhouqu debris flow in Gansu Province in2010,oil pipeline explosion in Dalian in2010, Shanghai high-rise fire in2010. These accidental disasters also bring heavy harmto chinese people,impeding economic construction and social stability in ourcountry.Compared to other emergency events, accident disasters occur in humansocietywhere human produce, live and do social activities,which are directly relatedwith people’s lives and property. The emergency management of this kind of disaster, ofcourse, is different from others’. People pay more and more attention to decision-makingproblems of accident disasters.For the current research situation,this paper takes accident disasters as researchsubjects,making a general commentary on research of emergency decision of accidentdisasters from both domestic and overseas and then putting forward the researchsubjects of this paper. First, fuzzy cognitive map theory is introducedbriefly;second,characteristics,disaster-causing factors,response point of accidentdisaster events are discussed.This paper also analysis the emergency decision factors ofaccident disaster events,then Build a fuzzy cognitive map model for the accidentdisasters.In the end,the paper select a nuclear power plant accident as a casestudy;analysis decision-making factors and the causal relationships between them of thenuclear power plant accident,and based on these,a fuzzy cognitive map model is buildedfor decision-making of nuclear power plant accident.Five scenario simulations usingthis model for decision reasoning show the effectiveness of fuzzy cognitive map ondecision problem.