| The Himalayan region is located in the combining site of the India plate and Eurasia plate, of which the regional tectonic movement is very strong, the geological structure is complexed,the earthquake activity is frequent. According to the China earthquake networks statistics from1900to2012years show that76times earthquakes that the magnitude more5.0in this area, including5.0a5.9-magnitude earthquake36times;6.0to6.4magnitude earthquake12times;6.5to8.5magnitude earthquake28times, every four years happened one on average more than magnitude6.5. From above more, it is the area in earthquake-prone areas in history, and the Indus river plain which distribute in the area, the gangetic plain, and the south Tibetan region in our country is highly concentrated population region,so in-depth research of the region’s major earthquake disasters and put forward actively disaster prevention system is of great significance:Based on the comprehensive analysis of the current research status of major earthquake at home and abroad, according to the actual situation, collected earthquake statistics, the sunspot data, El Nino, La Nina, and earth rotation data from1900to2012. Using Excel2007software, Coredraw; Using the commensurability information method, the butterfly structure method, the self-affine fractal method to analyze the symmetry of regional earthquake in time and space, to analysis the may earthquake of the Himalayas and the surrounding areas in the next decade years. Finally analyze the the influence caused by sunspots, earth’s rotation, El Nino and La Nina phenomenon to explore the other factors of the earthquake, and fractal geometry theory to study the space-time distribution characteristics of earthquake, finally we conclude the the following conclusions:(1) In terms of time symmetry, based on the method of commensurability information extract including ternary, quaternary and quintuple and butterfly structure commensurability. The results show that in the next10years, there is a strong signal that the earthquake whose level is greater than the seventh grade will occur in the Himalayas and the surrounding areas in2013,2014,2018, an earthquake with magnitude equal to or more than6.5is more likely to happen, the likelihood probability were45.46%,45.46%and63.64%. It is different that the direction force of Indian plate drift to the north, and collision Eurasian plate, and stress significantly greater than the western, and lithospheric thickness is greater than the western, crustal movement is much activer than the western,so The number of eastern section of an earthquake greater than western. The trend from west segment can be commensurability results, the random probability of an earthquake in2020was55.56%, not entirely possible earthquake; The randomness of the probability of22.22%in2013, is unlikely to an earthquake; the randomness of the probability are both33.33%in2016and2021, not entirely to occur it; the random probability of an earthquake in2023was44.44%, not entirely possible earthquake. The results show that in the next10years, there is a probability of Ms≥6.5earthquakes occurred in the Eastern in2013,2014,2020and2022. Random probability both are46.15%in2014a,2018a,2022a, not entirely to occur earthquake; the randomness of the probability both are38.46%in2020and2013, not entirely to occur it. In addition, there is a good commensurability structure system by extracting effective earthquake sequence.(2) In terms of spatial symmetry, based on the analysis and research about22times Ms≥6.5of epicenter migration patterns of the Himalayas and the surrounding areas from1900to now, we conclude that the regional seismic apparent mass migration patterns, and the times that eastern earthquakes is greater than western, and the proportion is thirteen to nine.There is a good space trilateral conformal symmetryhe for epicenter in the western and eastern. The migration trend of latitude for epicenter shows overall back and forth for east to west; The migration trend of longitude for epicenter shows overall back and forth for south to north. According to this development trend, it is is likely that the next earthquake is to be located in the east of88.2°E, north of27.7°N in the Himalayas and the surrounding areas.The seismic energy release about the time and space distribution is a kind of independent random events in Himalayas and the surrounding area and eastern segment.The seismic energy released distribution about time and spacce interval has the self affine fractal characteristics in the west segment, the Hurst exponent which represents the structural characteristics of the energy distribution is less than0.5, shows that the changing process of seismic energy distribution over time has a negative correlation effect.That is to say the energy release trendence of growth or reducen of the regional of history earthquake, will soon be replaced by the trendence of growth or attenuation. (3)The analysis on the relevant factors:the number of sunspots, earth rotation speed, the El nino phenomenon and La Nina and stress, we conclude the followe results:Earthquake and sunspot activity showed a better correlation, there are two times Earthquakes occurred in the number of sunspots peak years,3times in the valley years; The proportion that ccurred in the rising and falling stage of sunspot is fine to twelve. The earthquake has good correlation with the earth’s rotation speed, that is to say, while the earth’s rotation speed is slowing down and the earthquake is likely to happen. The speed change fastly will lead to greater the chance of seismogenic.The relations between earthquake and occurring years of ENSO event was not obvious, while a significant correlation with years around the ENSO events.The relations between earthquake and gravitaty show that the gravity of the moon is likely to delay or advance Earthquake time by tidal stress fluctuation, the moon’s gravity is is likely to be a fuse to trigger an earthquake. There is a positive relationship between earthquake and earth stress that the stress of the Himalayas and the surrounding area in the eastern is greater than the western stress, so the number of earthquakes in east segment greater than west segment. |
