Degradation Data Barrel Service Life Prediction And Analysis

Due to the high fees and costs of gun barrel, it’s usually difficult to get large numbers of test sample data. Under the condition of small sample, The traditional methods of life statistics and prediction which based on the failure time data is often useless. This thesis research on the assessment of barrel’s life based on the degradation data, which become an effective alternative method. In this paper, a machine gun barrel is taken as the object, the main contents are as follows:The barrel’s inner surface ablation data based on theoretical degradation simulation is conducted, and these data is taken as research object, an analysis method of the barrel life based on the degradation amount distribution is proposed.The Bootstrap method is proposed to estimate confidence interval of small sample barrel life. Taking barrel’s degradation data with small sample for example, the barrel pseudo-life is calculated by degradation locus method, then the life confidence interval is estimated by Bootstrap method. Compared with conventional method, the results show that the suggested confidence interval prediction method is more precise than conventional method.In order to improve the accuracy of predict results for small test data, the prediction method of barrel life based on theoretical degradation simulation and experimental data is presented. A certain type of machine gun barrel’s life is predicted and analyzed by the suggested method, the complete computer program is written in MATLAB.The degradation test parameter optimization integrating theoretical degradation simulation is completed. Taking the length of barrel life confidence interval as optimization objective and taking simulated sample size, simulated detection frequency, test detection frequency and detection time interval as optimization parameters, the optimization is completed by genetic algorithm, the corresponding program is written in MATLAB.Two software modules are developed base on the above research, one is the prediction method of barrel life based on theoretical degradation simulation and experimental data, the other one is the degradation test parameter optimization integrating theoretical degradation simulation. Use Excel as the user interface and call MATLAB program by Excel Link, then the results is outputted on the Excel interface.