Business Cycle Synchronization And Effecting Factors In The Chinese Regions

Exploring synchronization and its influencing factors of regional business cycle is a great significance to national macroeconomic policy. At present, The research of domestic regional business cycle synchronization is still in a primary stage. It’s not enough to practical analysis. Therefore,We conducted a more detailed measure on business cycle synchronization by using dual indicators: correlation coefficient and concordance index. We further improved the influencing factors of regional business cycle synchronization model, and first proposed fisher-z transform. These are important supplement of our business cycle synchronization analysis.The purpose of this paper is to measure the regional business cycle synchronization and its influencing factors. Therefore, We first introduced how to measure regional business cycle and its synchronization. Secondly, Using the dual index, We measured Chinese regions and the eastern, central and western regions with the coordination degree of business cycle. Simultaneously, We measured business cycle synchronization in regions by using Multidimensional Scaling and Cluster analysis method. Finally, Taking correlation coefficient and concordance index as the dependent variable to establish multivariate regression model to measure different stages of Chinese regional business cycle synchronization and its influencing factors since the reform and opening up. These research given the direction of macroeconomic policy.The results show that:(1)Most of the provinces in China and the eastern, central and western regions has a higher business cycle synchronization. And with the deepening of the reform and opening up, the synergy degree has a tendency to reduce gradually.(2)At different stages after the reform and opening up, the main factors affecting Chinese regional business cycle synchronization is different. In the previous stage(1978-1993), geographic distance, economies of scale, the income gap between regions is the main influencing factor of the business cycle synchronization; At the later stage(1994-2011), economic scale, the fiscal policy coordination, the income gap between regions, and the industrial structure difference degree is the main influence factors. Among them, the geographic distance, fiscal policy coordination, regional income gap and business cycle synchronization has an inverse relationship. Economic scale and the business cycle synchronization was positively to change.(3) geographical and adjacent area virtual variable are no significant effect on the synergistic effect of business cycle in our country. It’s suggests that Chinese regions have the market segmentation problems. According to the results, in order to improve the synergistic effect of regional business cycle in our country, the government should accelerate the construction of regional economic integration to weak the regional market segmentation. And when making macroeconomic policy, The government should consider the regional differences in the business cycle, guide the cross-regional resources rational allocation, promote the balanced development of the national economy.