Research On Financial Risks Of Large Consumers Direct-purchasing

It will be the key issue of the further development of national power market reform that promoting the policy of large consumers direct-purchasing and opening up the retail side. In this case, large electricity consumers as independent economic entities will not only have the opportunity to participate in the electricity market where they can purchase electricity from multiple power trading markets to reduce their power purchase costs, but also face great financial risk because of the volatility of power prices in different power markets due to the features of electricity energy and the incomplete related policies and regulations.Based on the analysis of the financial risks that the large consumers face, this dissertation mainly uses the potfolio idea to study how to avoid financial power purchase risk. By comparing several risk metrics and analyzing the features of large consumers’ power purchase, this dissertation takes semi-absolute deviation as a risk measurement index to construct the optimal purchasing portfolio model for multiple markets with a target of minimum expected purchasing cost under the constraints of risk level. Using mixed integer linear programming method, the power purchase proportion of large consumers is calculated in the annual direct-purchasing market, monthly direct-purchasing market, day-ahead market and its captive power plant. The calculation results show that the proposed model can effectively reflect the risks facing the large consumers and guide their power purchase decision-making and risk management. Compared with the CVaR purchasing portfolio model, the proposed model validates its superiority when applied to the combinatorial optimization in which the cost of power purchase is the objects to be measured.On this basis, this dissertation takes advantage of the model above to analyze the impact of the consumer’s power purchase decision when the fluctuation of market prices and policy was considered. Considering the possibility of the interruptible load contract in the large consumers’ direct-purchasing contracts, this dissertation establishes an optimal model of multiple markets purchasing portfolio strategy while the interruptible load contract is taken into account, and also analyzes the impact of the interruptible load and its details.