Research In China Short-term International Capital Flows:Genesis,Macroeconomic Impact And Optimal Scale Estimation

The flows of international capital in the current age is very common, and with the flows of capital, various kinds of "capital flow crisis" will arise, typically in1992the European monetary system crisis, in1994, the Mexican financial crisis, and in1997the Asian financial crisis, are all more or less and capital flow exist between the international relationship. Short-term international capital flows, combined with the definition of the existing literature, the author summarized the are as follows:"Short-term capital", or "hot money" is a kind of international capital flow, which chase high interest rate, high liquidity, high risk and high confidentiality, their managers are based on international political environment, and international economic environment of full consideration, constantly in all countries and regions to seek income between in and out, the capital of the huge number and it is hard to quantify distinguish, can’t be effective supervision, so with the flow of short term capital often have produced economic not non-member stable effect. For short-term capital flows, the study of primary difficulties is the capital quantitative, experience on the short term capital in the number of FDI for equal non-trade capital, is also the short-term capital=non-trade FDI capital=international reserves-net exports-provided net FDI inflows, the calculation results of the positive and negative said short-term capital inflows of respectively or out.For the research of short-term international capital flows, scholars at home and abroad and from the definition, the present situation to influence factors, the economic effect were open a large number of studies, in which more widespread conclusion is, short-term international capital flows and exchange rate expected by one country difference between the influence degree of the larger interest rates, in an economy can also have the contraction effect. This paper reviews the existing literature on the basis of the conclusion, then from three angles to start with short international capital flows, this paper first identifying the factors affecting the short-term capital flows, and screened important variables; Secondly investigation short-term capital flows on our country’s economic impact effects, including capital market impact and real economy impact two parts, trying to find short-term capital flows to macroeconomic impact of the path and the influence degree; Finally, through the model calculation our country present stage short-term capital flows in theory of optimal scale, judge in China’s current short-term capital flows is the optimal state, and from the point of view of the influence factors to discuss policy Suggestions.Through this empirical studies, which found that our country since2008in the short term capital flow of forward that most of the monthly and a huge number, show that short-term capital is more and more into our country. From the influence factors perspective, China international capital flow of short-term two push factor, one of, the development of capital market can cause significant international short term capital flow in our country, which show that the capital market, especially the stock market is still a short-term international capital of the earnings of place; Another interest rate and exchange rate changes to international capital flow also has significant effect. In this paper the establishment of the economic system, China international capital flow on the economy short-term formed by the great impact to small respectively are: economic growth, foreign trade, inflation. Finally, through the optimal solution of the model, we conclude that the current situation of short-term capital flows in a "super optimal state, and the actual flow into the far larger than the optimal scale, explain the future need to strengthen the short-term capital flows into control efforts.