Study Of Monetary Policy Bank Credit Availability Conduction Channel Of China

Based on monetary policy bank credit availability conduction as the main line, and from the angle of the micro liquidity management of the commercial banks, we start the research of bank credit availability transmission channel obstruction of the mechanism of monetary policy, and on the basis of classic reserve management model, we get a modified model of reserve management by considering policy restraints’effect such as capital adequacy ratio, deposit loan ratio, and find out that besides being decided mainly by opportunity costs of reserve assets and expected liquidity shortage costs, the commercial bank liquidity management is also influenced by monetary policy constraints and regulations, and pro-cyclicality preference of the business bank liquidity management may make monetary policy effect is sometimes not ideal; And then combining with reserve management model conclusion, we further research conflicts between pro-cyclicality management of the commercial bank and countercyclical policy of the central bank, as well as monetary policy of bank credit availability transmission channel obstruction effect resulting from the commercial bank’s pro-cyclicality liquidity management; Finally in terms of the results of our studies, we select deposit, loan, funding outstanding for foreign exchange and growth rate of industry value added as explanatory variables of deposits credits balance gap of commercial banks, and meanwhile select bank loans as explanatory variable of money supply with choosing the excess reserve as instrumental variable of bank loan, then we establish a commercial bank deposit loan gap regression model and a money supply regression model of our country, and through empirical analysis, we study the factors affecting commercial bank’s liquidity, and by using the method of variable tools, make empirical test of conflicts between commercial bank’s pro-cyclicality liquidity management and countercyclical monetary policy, as well as have analysis on probable reasons that causing monetary policy of bank credit availability conduction obstruction; The empirical results shows that our country commercial banks’deposit loan balance gap have long-term equilibrium relationship with deposit, loan, funds outstanding for foreign exchange, stock market price and growth rate of industry value added, among them, growth rate of deposit, funds outstanding for foreign exchange and growth rate of industry value added have positive correlation with growth rate of deposit loan balance gap both in long-term and in short-term; Loan growth rate in both long-term and short-term has negative correlation with growth rate of deposit loan balance gap; Stock market price growth rate has negative correlation with deposit loan gap growth rate in the long-term, but the influence in short-term is not apparent, which reflects long-term stable development of the stock market has certain shunting effect of bank capitals; In both long-term and short-term balanced relationship, the positive pushing effects from deposit growth acting on deposit loan gap is greater than the negative pulling effects from loan growth, which may be result of a high savings rate in China, and long-term administrative interferences have made our country’s commercial banks have certain discriminations on loan objects and prefer to lend money to state-owned enterprises so that cause credits tight in some extent; Funds outstanding for foreign exchange has less influence in long-term than in short-term, which maybe comes from the central bank continues implementing foreign exchange combining hedge policy and that’s just the very reflection of policy effects.