Financial Risk Analysis For Real Estate Market Based On Risk Energy Throry

Real estate finance is supporting the real estate industry’s rapidly development, and at thesame time inevitably bears a high risk. Once risk outbreaks, it will quickly spread to the entirefinancial system, even affect the development and stability of the financial system and the wholenational economy. Therefore, the study of the real estate financial risk is very necessary.In this dissertation, we research risk identification, risk analysis and risk countermeasures,using system dynamics theory, risk energy theory and the corresponding empirical research.In the first section, focusing on real estate primary and secondary market, the dissertationbuilds the figure about real estate market financial risk factors, and the causal feedbackmechanism and dynamic model is set up. Through changing real estate financial policy, theinfluence degree to real estate market is stimulated, which can be used to analyze real estatefinancial market risk factors for further step. And this section gives the conclusion as follows:macro-control policies such as combinations to adjust the proportion of down payment, loanperiod, the loan interest rates and other aspects are positive macro-control policies, but only canstimulation or inhibition the occurrence of the financial risk in the real estate market inshort-term. Therefore, we need to add comprehensive consideration of the real estate market’sown law and system risk factors, and take positive and effective measures to control the realestate market, or control the real estate investment and speculative demand for further.In the second section, focusing on the target of the system operation, the dissertationanalyzes the real estate market risk, and builds the real estate supply and demand network, whichincludes external risk, entity cooperation risk and entity internal risk. Based on risk energy theory,the dissertation analyzes the real estate financial market in different stages and calculates theprofit and loss, in order to judge whether the risk energy have exceeded the system tolerance, andimprove the effectiveness of risk countermeasures.The last section is the real estate financial risk countermeasure of the dissertation. In thetheory, the aim of establish and implement risk countermeasure is reducing the risk profit and loss result, which embodying in risk energy is: controlling the range ability of risk energy in realestate supply and demand net; reducing the possibility of the risk energy of the real estate marketsupply and demand net over the risk of the real estate market system risk energy affordability;and the most critical is to reduce the risk profit and loss value and the occurrence probability ofthe real estate development company, sales company, building materials company, constructioncompany in the real estate market supply and demand net. And correspondingly establish andimplement risk countermeasure in risk avoiding, risk control, risk transfer.