The Study And Estimate Of Energy Rebound Effect Based On Rearcher And Development Model

As an important input for industrial production, energy has always been the focus of the whole society. In the process of industrialization and the deepening of reform and opening up, although the total energy production in China ranks second in the world, but still can not meet the growing domestic demand for energy. In addition, the poor quality energy of coal make a large proportion in the energy consumption in China, which making the continued growth of the domestic economy will largely depend on the energy efficiency improvement. However, the efficiency of energy use will change the incentives that people face, which may in turn lead to energy consumption increasing rather than reducing, this phenomenon is known as the "Jevons Paradox", also the energy rebound effect. In order to prove the existence of the energy rebound effect and its influencing factors, this paper deduces the rebound effect in the research and development model, and then estimate the energy rebound effects in the three industries of China.The results of this study include three points:firstly, in a small open economy with exogenous technology, the amount of incremental energy consumption is directly in proportion to the rate of improvement in energy efficiency. When the production function is Cobb-Douglas function, the size of the energy increment is also associated with the output elasticity of capital, labor and energy; when the production function is extended to constant substitution function (CES), the energy increment is closely related with the elasticity of substitution. Secondly, under the research and development model and the endogenous technological progress in the production function, the short-term energy rebound effect is related to the energy output elasticity, the elasticity of substitution and the elasticity of energy efficiency to the energy consumption. Factors affecting the long-term energy rebound effect include the above three and the output elasticity of capital and labor, the impact mechanism of these factors is very complicated. Thirdly, the estimate of rebound effect in the three industries of China shows that between1981to2011, there were short-term rebound effects in all industries, but the rebound effect changed with time; at the same time, the long-term rebound effect is also positive in these industries too.Although this paper has relaxed some of the assumptions of the existing research, there are still some shortcomings. Heterogeneity of energy and the energy production sector are not taken into account in the model setting, the model also ignores the energy consumption in the daily lives of residents. Therefore, the subsequent research can deduce the rebound effect of energy consumption in a more reasonable model according to the above points.