The Calculation Of The Energy Rebound Effect In China

Energy is the basic production factor of a country or region's development, and it is an integral part of the economic growth of a country. Moreover, with the development of an economy, the demand for energy is increasing. However, the total amount of energy is always a constant. Then how to promote the economic development while saving energy consumption is all countries'top priority. Under normal circumstances, it is widely thought that we can reduce energy consumption by advancing our technology, thus improving energy efficiency. However, due to the rebound effect, the effectiveness of the initiative has been questioned. The energy rebound effect is referred to as the fact that while technological progress can improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption, it also contributes to economic expansion, and this in turn can contribute to the increase of energy consumption. When technological progress is larger than the amount of reduced energy consumption due to technological progress, the total energy consumption is increased, which is called energy rebound effect. The presence of energy rebound effect makes it less effective than expected to reduce energy consumption though technological progress.At first, this paper will make a brief analysis of China's current energy consumption, this includes the descriptive statistics analysis of total energy consumption, energy consumption structure, industrial structure of energy consumption and energy intensity, and based on these analyses this paper will point out the problems of our country's energy consumption. Based on the theoretical analysis of the energy rebound effect, this paper will make proposals of "energy inefficiency trap" and energy rebound effect curve, and this paper will combine the rebound effect of energy and economic development of a country. The conclusion of the above analysis is that under the extensive mode of economic development, energy rebound effect is significant, so that the amount of energy saved due to technological advances will be offset by the amount of energy increased due to technological advances, thus effect of energy saving is not obvious, and this is called "energy inefficiency trap".By building the calculation model of energy rebound effect, and though the application of ridge regression and LMDI decomposition method, this paper will measure China's energy rebound effect from 1996 to 2013. The empirical results show that, firstly, the rebound effect of energy exists in China, it is 83.46% during 1996 and 2013, relatively large. In some occasion energy rebound effect value is greater than 100%, in recent two years 2012 and 2013, it is nearly 70%, rebound effect of energy at this stage is still large. The hope of achieving energy saving through technological progress and the ensuing increasing of energy efficiency is not ideal because of the rebound effect, the effect. Second, the value of energy rebound effect is an average of 83.46% at the present stage, which is large and is in the second phase of the energy rebound effect, that is to say the amount of energy saved due to technological advances is totally offset by the amount of energy increased due to technological advances a result of technological advances, thus the "energy inefficiency trap" is not completely casted off, "energy inefficiency trap" still exists in our country at this stage.Finally, according to the empirical results, this paper presents the following relevant policy recommendations:Firstly, we need to pay attention to technological innovation. Despite the rebound effect makes the saving of energy less obvious than expected, the improving of energy efficiency and the reducing of energy consumption due to technological progress is still a positive move. Second, we need optimize the industrial structure. The optimization of industrial structure is an important way to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption. Third, we need optimize energy consumption structure. Our country's inefficient energy consumption structure is an important reason for the ineffectiveness of energy saving policy. Fourth, we need to establish a rational energy pricing system. The prices our country's energy is low, this to a certain extent lead to excessive consumption of energy. Therefore, we should establish a rational energy pricing system and encourage people to consume energy more rationally.