China's Housing Prices Factors

Since1998. began a comprehensive housing marketization reform in our country, the real estate industry is to be monetize commodification and marketization of the all-round. Along with our country economic system reform, the rapid development of economy and advancing of urbanization, the real estate industry in the last two decades has developed rapidly, increasing the proportion in national economy, has gradually become the important pillar industry of national economy in our country, stimulating the development of many related industries, led to the growth of the economy, has made a great contribution for our country’s economic development. However, while the real estate industry is expanding the dramatic expansion of housing prices are rising sharply, increasing far more than the growth rate of our country residents income, make ordinary residents purchase pressure surge, surge in house prices has caused concern of the government and academic circles of the society, the housing price has become the focus of the government macroeconomic regulation and control in the recent ten years, the government continuously improving introduce the relevant regulation and control policy. Although the government continue to introduce stricter regulation and control policy, and strengthen again and again, but the regulation result is not obvious that demands we find a more scientific way to analysis the real estate industry and the influence factors of housing prices to provide more scientific theory basis for government regulation. Previous research treated the housing prices of various provinces and cities as independent individuals, ignored the spatial interactions in housing prices of the various provinces and cities, but any economic behavior in geographical space is more or less contacted. the spatial interactions in housing price make the assumption of mutual independence is not appropriate, and need study the housing price on a new premise, spatial interaction existing in housing price. The dissertation adopts the method of Spatial Econometrics, adds a spatial weight matrix into the mathematical model to consider the spatial interaction. Firstly studied the development of the real estate market in China and the government regulation and control policy in the latest decade:secondly from the angle of theory, analyzed the influence factors of housing prices in China as well as the correlation of regional house prices in our country, made a theoretical ground for after the empirical analysis; thirdly through the calculation of Moran index studied the regional correlation of China’s housing prices in the empirical analysis, confirmed that the regional house prices in China are positive correlation, not randomly distributed in the spatial distribution but containing inevitable inner link, mainly displayed in regions with relatively high or low price tends to cluster on the space respectively, namely provinces with relatively high price surrounded by other provinces of relatively high price, provinces with low house price surrounded by the provinces of relatively low prices, and this kind of situation maintained stable over time. Then in the empirical part, using ordinary panel model and spatial panel model respectively to study the impact from urbanization rate, urban residents’ income, the third industry proportion in GDP and the fiscal expenditure proportion in GDP on housing prices from2001to2010, the empirical results obtained under the consideration of spatial correlation which using spatial panel model are more reliable than that without considering the spatial correlation with common panel models. The spatial effect in housing price determines the government regulation about housing prices should be arranged across the country as a whole, only focus on single province or city will make the effect not obvious. Simply rely on single province or city housing price control might backfire. Teamed up mutual coordination between the provinces and cities could promote the real estate market in a benign developing.