| With the integration of the world economy and China’s trade policy increasingly open, the relationship between the mass of raw materials’ prices of the domestic market and international market is becoming more and more closely. At present China cotton is the second crop only to the grain. Cotton production, consumption, and the volume of imports and exports in China is No.1in the world, they play an important role in the world cotton market. But since China joined the WTO, as the process of integration of the global cotton market accelerated, foreign investment cotton enterprises gradually enter into the domestic cotton market, American cotton futures often drive Zhengzhou cotton futures price, China cotton in the world is always lack of pricing rights.This paper is in the background of the after-financial-crisis. It firstly use the references of research theories and methods about the future and spot markets in the domestic and foreign countries. Secondly by using a lot of data and charts, intuitively reflected the current situation of China cotton future and spot prices, comprehensively analyzed the influence factors of the China cotton futures and spot market and the ways of international cotton market prices affect China cotton market for below matting, and drew a primary conclusion:international cotton prices can affect our cotton future and spot markets through the futures approaches, and cotton futures prices and spot prices affect each other. Then this paper used data of non-commercial long positions, international cotton future prices, China cotton future and spot prices in January2009-June2011for the correlation analysis, ADF test, establishing VAR model and error correction model, cointegration test, granger causality test, pulse and variance decomposition, empirically proved that international cotton futures affect China cotton prices. The results showed that:the speculative trades in international cotton future market affect international cotton future prices, the international cotton future prices have influence on China cotton future market and China cotton future prices and spot prices are highly correlated and have causality. Among them, the international cotton future market has more influence on China cotton future market, China cotton futures market has a strong price guidance to the spot market. Finally, in view of the new problems that China cotton prices dependent highly on the international cotton prices and China cotton is lack of pricing rights in the world in the after-financial-crisis background, this paper put forward the new countermeasures and suggestions about how to build better future market and reform spot market, so as to perfect our country’s cotton future market and spot market’s development.When today’s world economic integration pattern strengthened day by day, economy is recovering after the financial crisis, and at the background of a good deal of capital wander between international markets, it is necessary to study the influence of the speculation in international future market to China cotton prices, so as to provide policy suggestions and a hedge reference for cotton investors to stable domestic cotton prices, improve the competitiveness of the cotton industry of our country and defend China cotton pricing rights. |
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