The Financial Forewarning Analysis Of Manufacturing Industry Listed Company Based On SVM

The listed company is the basis for the development of capital market in our country, its development is directly related to the prosperity or decay of our capital market. In this paper we have selected the SVM serve as our research tool, in order to build an effective forewarning model, we should make financial forewarning analysis of the listed companies before financial crisis coming on.On the base of summarizing the domestic and overseas’s research status and combining the define of the financial crisis’s concept, we use the theoretical basis of SVM to build mathematical model for forecasting financial crisis.This paper has chose twenty listed companies that have meet with financial crisis and twenty normal companies matched with it as modeling samples, thirty companies (fifteen normal and fifteen had encountered financial crisis)of2010are used for testing the SVM model’s effect. Through a series of index selection, we have selected nineteen indexes in all and apply the first three years’s financial index to build SVM model separately for forecasting if the test sample would come up with financial crisis, we have discovered that its forecasting precision is63.3%,90%,90%respectively. Owing to only utilizing single year’s financial index data to build model, the data just contain little information and the financial index of different year have different forecasting precision, this paper attempt to take a weighted average of the first three year’s data before the listed companies encounter financial crisis, the weight is the quotient of single year’s and total three years’s forecasting precision, after doing such a process, it can be ensure not only utilizing data information in large scale but also can select different weight based on different forecasting precision of different year, so it make our final forecasting precision more accurate, after the test, the prediction accuracy is96.7%and it is more accurate than only apply single year’s financial index data to predict the result.We select the listed company of the manufacturing as our research sample and have obtained preferably conclusion, so we can try to popularize this financial crisis forecasting method in other industries.