A Study On Excessive Speculation Behavior Of China’s Futures Market

Futures market as China’s characteristic socialism market economic system an organicpart of the stability of the economic development of an increasingly important role. Butspeculative excess problem in the reform and opening up in China since the reconstructionof the futures market, the pilot stage of development, rectify and standardize the stagephase of development, always bedfellows, more and more affect China’s futures marketand the national economy stable and healthy development. Affected by the temporarymeasures of national policy intervention and exchange issued, the market has increased theunpredictability, by a main body of market manipulation, prices at irrational fluctuations,or prices deviate from the spot market.These acts and consequences are a marketparticipant willful violations, to manipulate the market results, regardless of whether theoperation is successful or not, will make many members face settlement risk, andeventually evolved into the exchange risk settlement on the face.Systemic risk will lead toloss of market expansion, endanger the normal market clearing, including clearingparticipant exchanges and futures market, make the normal transaction cannot be.Specificperformance: one is exchange, futures Broker’s Firm settlement unit with varying degreesof settlement risk, on the other hand is the legitimate interests of investors receivedwidespread damage.Therefore, in this paper the development of China’s futures market inthe existence of the excessive speculation expounded on the concept of futures marketexcessive speculation relationship, combed the since the reform and opening up China’sfutures market reconstruction and norm at various stages of development, China’s futuresmarket and the cause of excessive speculation are summarized, and finally puts forwardsome solutions to the futures market excessive speculation countermeasures and ideas.This paper is divided into four parts:The first part: the futures market of the related concepts on excessive speculation.Hedging in futures market and speculation is two main trade form, is also the traders of thetwo kinds of investment means, both complement each other, be short of one cannot,Futures market needs speculation, but excessive speculation and speculation deficiencies are not market development need, need only moderate speculate; Only moderatespeculation can bear price risk, promote the price discovery, increase market liquidity andthe control of market price fluctuation, in futures market and promote national economicstability and development play a positive role, Through the base difference detection, thefutures price and warehouse receipt quantity detection, contract turnover rate detection,real goods delivery rate detection, the futures price month, seasonal and annual comparisontesting number identification method to determine whether there is excessive speculation.The second part: combed the since the reform and opening up China’s futures marketreconstruction and development process. In the reconstruction of China’s futures market,China’s futures market futures pilot and disordered stage of development, China’s futuresmarket rectification stage, China’s futures market standard stage of developmentspeculation participation and evolution. Analysis of the various periods of development ofChina’s futures market risk events that, China’s futures market after rectification reformmakes excessive speculation has been reduced, but the market manipulation, short squeezerisk events still occur,And through the basis, the futures price and the amount of turnover,warehouse receipts, physical delivery rate reflects the speculative risk is still higher thanthe foreign mature markets.The fourth part: in the development of China’s futures market excessive speculationproblem solving countermeasures and ideas. Strengthen futures market laws andregulations construction, strengthen the futures market supervision system, intensify lawenforcement and futures exchange and brokerage company standardization construction,cultivating large futures varieties, perfect futures variety structure, standardize hedgingtransactions, cultivate hedgers, strengthen futures market information construction.Therefore, need to continue to strengthen the supervision of the futures market, pay closeattention to the abnormal trading behaviors, good market risk prevention and control work,crack down on illegal trading, resolutely curb excessive speculation.At the same time,further improve the business rules, to meet the relevant industry chain enterprises tomanage price risk in price fluctuations in demand, promote the rules of the futures marketsystem perfection,Includes limiting speculative positions/expand contract convenient value and industrial customers to apply for hedging risk management industry, meet thedemands of customers, to further enhance the ability of the futures market service entityeconomy.