A Study On Influence Factors Of China’s Cyclical Economic Fluctuation During The Period Of Transition

Based on different assumptions, the conclusion of fluctuations in the economic cycletheory are also not identical. Some emphasize investment, some emphasis on technology etc.In short, the reason of economic cycle fluctuation in different theories is different.The United States National Bureau of economic research Mitchell in the research onbusiness cycle problem refused to accept any prior theory, instead picking out some possiblecauses of the economic cycle to avoid leaning to either side, through the analysis of empiricalfacts to find the principle of the economic cycle.Inspired by Mitchell, this paper attempts to study the various factors affecting theeconomic cycle fluctuations in the economic cycle, so as to find the characteristics of China’sreform and opening up.Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy grows in high speed while also facingthe periodic fluctuation and instability problems. According to the new characteristics ofbusiness cycle since the reform and opening-up of our country, reasons and influence of thefluctuation are analyzed. This is for us to understand the new situation of China’s economicfluctuations of objective laws, grasp the development trend of China’s economic operation,timely and appropriately to take macro-control measures, maintain the development ofnational economy sustained and coordinated,which is of great theoretical and practicalsignificance.This article from the two aspects about aggregate demand and aggregate supply studyChinese economic cycle fluctuation. Aggregate demand mainly includes consumption,investment and net exports. Aggregate supply includes labor, capital stock.Research methods used in this paper is the combination of qualitative and quantitative,highlight the quantitative analysis. The measurement method used mainly includes thetime-difference correlation coefficient, impulse response function and Granger causality test.Causality test can determine the causal direction between variables and explain the essentialcharacteristics of the macroeconomic system. The impulse response function is the analysis ofthe impact of an endogenous variable. These analysis methods of time series will provide agood foundation for the empirical analysis of this paper. This paper mainly uses the timedifference correlation coefficient, Granger causality test and impulse response function toestablish the econometric model, and then to analyze the impact of various economic factorson China’s economic cycle fluctuation.