Research On The Measuring And Influencing Factors Of China’s Motor Vehicle Insurance Underwriting Cycle

With the development of economy and growth of income, most of people own the motor vehicles which have become the necessaries of life, which promotes the development of the motor vehicle insurance market.Because of the rapid growth of motor vehicle insurance premium, it has become the first in the property insurance coverage, which shows the importance of motor vehicle insurance in the insurance industry.So any change of motor vehicle insurance will bring great influence to the development of the insurance industry. According to the research at home and abroad, underwriting cycle is widespread in the insurance industry. But academic research for property insurance industry’s overall underwriting cycle phenomena is more than motor vehicle insurance underwriting cycle, and the perspective of the empirical study is less, so it is necessary to do some in-depth study of it. Whether China’s motor vehicle insurance underwriting cycle exists or not, if it exists, it is affected by what factors, this article will focus on the problem.Firstly, the article combs domestic and foreign research status of this field, we found that the research of china’s motor vehicle insurance underwriting cycle is deficient, this paper just supplement the research. At the same time the article combs the relevant theoretical basis of the underwriting cycle, and to study the time domain analysis and frequency domain analysis. Study founds that filtering method has certain advantages, so this paper selected the CF filter method for motor vehicle insurance market in China. In the underwriting cycle influence factors theory, the rational expectations theory and irrational expectations theory are expounded as the theoretical basis of the following research.Secondly, the motor vehicle insurance development situation at home and abroad were reviewed and compared, founding that motor vehicle insurance market has its particularity in China. Its particularity mainly is embodied in the rate control and market access restrictions, which is different with the western capitalist countries.However, the domestic research has failed to attach importance to the limitations on the motor vehicle insurance market underwriting cycle in China, so it is also the difference for this paper.Thirdly, this paper uses CF filtering method to measure underwriting cycle of china’s motor vehicle insurance market, empirical results show that underwriting cycle of china’s motor vehicle insurance market is about 4.8 years, and symmetry cycle is not obvious.Finally, on the basis of the above research, the thesis makes a realistic analysis about the influencing factors of China’s motor vehicle insurance underwriting cycle, namely economic environment factors, pricing mechanism factors, market environment factors, policy environment actors. And then builds a 5-VAR model, decomposes the models variance and makes the impulse response figures to discuss the strength and influencing mechanism of each variable. The study shows that loss ratio, GDP growth rate, loss and The premium growth rate, the four variables are the main factors that affect China’s motor vehicle insurance underwriting cycle. Loss variable has more and more significant impact on motor vehicle insurance market in China.the number of property insurance company variable has a stable impact on motor vehicle insurance market in China.Influence of Interest rate can be ignored.This paper has certain innovation on china’s motor vehicle insurance underwriting cycle.From the aspects of research methods, mainly use advanced cycle measure method-CF filter, making results more accurate; From the aspects of research contents, policy factor is joined in the paper, the research of this field is advanced further.