Empirical Studies On The Trade Potential The Economies Rean In Thegion Of Japan, China And South Korea

With the economic rise of China and economic takeoff of South Korea’s, China-Japan-South Korea region has become one of the fastest growing economies regions in the world. The significant trade change in China-Japan-South Korea region attracts the world’s attention. During the economic development, however, there are still some problems, focusing on the development state in the region. In trade flows and structure of trade, the development and changes in China-Japan-South Korea region are prominent. As for trade flows, the trade flows of economic equities in China-Japan-South Korea area grows faster and higher than the growth rate of world trade. As for trade structure, the trade structure of China-Japan-South Korea region upgrades dually and the proportion of manufactured goods increases. Regarding trade flows, China and Japan become the trade development centers of China-Japan-South Korea region.This article makes objective description and qualitative analysis on five economies of China-Japan-South Korea region, that is China, South Korea, Japan, China Hong Kong and Taiwan regions, and reveals the outstanding performance and impact factors of trade developments and changes in the region of China, Japan and South Korea based on economic and trade theory of neoclassical economics, elements trade theory and other related theories, combining normative analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and using large amounts of data. The analysis results show that the trade development of China-Japan-South Korea region is associated with the development of the overall economic situation in the world. However, it is mainly and directly related to the rapid growth of the economies in the region of China, Japan and South Korea, the export-oriented economic development strategy, the establishment and upgrading of the regional division, China’s economic rise, neighborly foreign policy and actively promoting regional economic cooperation organizations and so on.Through introducing the system of importing and exporting countries, the level of economic development, foreign direct investment and Declaration of Cooperation jointly issued by China, Japan and South Korea into trade gravity model, the paper improves the trade gravity model, and makes empirical test of factors affecting the trade development and change of five economies in China-Japan-South Korea region from different angles of the exporting and importing countries, the export trade and import trade. The article also predicts the trade development potential of economies in China-Japan-South Korea region. The research results show that in the export market, China Hong Kong area and South Korea, owe greater the export potential of economies of China-Japan-South Korea region whereas the export potential of China Taiwan region is smaller. The export potential of China to South Korea, China Hong Kong and Taiwan areas belongs to "the potential-developing type" while the export potential of China exporting to Japan belongs to "the potential-reshape type". In import market, the import potential of Japan and South Korea to China-Japan-South Korea region is big that of China, China Taiwan and Hong Kong areas is smaller. The import potential of China Hong Kong and Taiwan regions mostly belongs to "the huge potential type" and the import potential of China to Japan, South Korea and China Taiwan region belongs to "the potential-reshape type". The import potential of China to China Hong Kong is "the potential-exploiting type". Forecast results keep consistent with the slow and even downward import growth of China to the economies of China-Japan-South Korea region in recent years.Finally, the thesis put forward ways and countermeasures to promote trade development of China-Japan-South Korea region based on analyzing the current situation and problems of trade development in the region of China, Japan and South Korea. The countermeasures mainly include promoting the development of the final product market, regional economic cooperation organizations development and the system reform, strengthening regional financial cooperation and logistical construction cooperation.