A Study Of Producers And Consumer Behavior Based On Price Fluctuations

This paper mainly describes the characteristics of China’s pork price fluctuations andfinds the basis characteristics of China’s pork price fluctuations.on the basis of this, weanalysis the specific impact of price fluctuations on producers and consumers to predictfurther China’s pork supply and demand balance.we hope to put forward the correspondingpolicy recommendations. The main contents are as follows:（1）Studying the fluctuations in the price of pork characteristics by HP filter method, wefind that the overall price of pork in China show a rising trend, the more obviouscharacteristics of cyclical fluctuations. In the long run,Short-term volatility shows increasingtrend of the fluctuations. From seasonal elements, the general trend of changes in the price ofpork in China in line with the law of seasonal fluctuations in most of the time.（2）Analysising the pork producer behavior by using adaptive expectations model, wefind that a year pork production will be affected by China’s output of pork, pork prices, as well asthe cost of pig production. Of the three elements measuring the changes of the supply of pork,compared to the price of pork and a pork production changes, changes in the cost ofproduction greated than the price of pork and a pork production changes for the currentproduction to large, that is, in considering the price of pork production costs rise at the samerate, the amount of pork supply mainly decided by the rising cost factors.（3）Analysising the consumer behavior by seemingly unrelated regression analysis, wefind that compared to cattle, sheep, chickens and other livestock products, urban residents percapita pork consumption and pork prices have significant relevance. while the relation of porkconsumption per capita and income of urban residents is not very high. The correlationconsumption of rural residents is more than urban residents with the same price. The incomeof rural residents improve to pork is less significant than to beef and poultry.while the impactof the lamb is relatively significant.（4）Forecasting China’s pork supply and demand balance by GM (1,1) model. From theaccuracy speaking, we mainly consider the choice of the forecast items when using GM (1,1)model,this paper mainly compares4pen,5pen,6pen,7pen,7pen data selection accuracy,theresults show that the use of the pen is more accurate predictive value and GM (1,1) model is only suitable for short-term forecasts; Based on accuracy data, we predict China’s pork supplyand demand for the period2013-2020,the results show that in the next few years, China’s porkproduction fully meet the needs of China’s domestic pork consumption in2020and willproduce300million tons of the remaining amount.According to above conclusions, this paper argues that during the policy development andmacro-control, we should pay more attention to the specific behavior of the characteristics offluctuations in the price of pork, pork producers and pork consumers. From historical data andfuture projections, China’s domestic pork supply and demand will keep balance, therefore, themost important job is to maintain the stability of China’s pork production.